The president, embroiled in a number of corruption charges, is the most unpopular Brazilian leader since the country’s dictatorship, which lasted from 1964 to 1985.

The results from the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics (IBOPE) poll are based on surveys with some 2,000 residents in 126 Brazilian cities, taken between September 15 and 20.

The poll found that those who see Temer’s management as “bad” or “very bad” has jumped to 77 percent from 70 percent in July. The survey also found that no female respondent had rated his administration as “very good.”

Only 3% of the population think Temer’s administration is good or great. The survey reports that 16% of the people find the government’s job regular and 3% said they don’t know or didn’t answer the question.

The good/great evaluation has fallen to the lowest rate since the end of José Sarney’s administration. In July 1989, former Brazilian president had the approval of 7% of the population.

According to the document, this is the fourth consecutive quarter of worsening in government’s approval. From September 2016 to the same month this year, good/great evaluation has had successive quarterly downfalls: 13%, 10%, 5% and the present 3%. On the opposite way, bad/very bad has risen – 46%, 55%, 70% and the present 77%.

In the previous query, the government was evaluated as good or great by 5%, as regular by 21% and as bad or very bad by 70%.

Confidence

About Temer’s governing style, the approval has fallen from 11% (July) to 7% this month. Disapproval, in turn, has risen from 83% to 89% in the same period.

The confidence in the president has also had a downfall. The group of respondents that trust Michel Temer has fallen from 10% in July to 6% in September. The percentage of people who said they don’t trust the president has risen from 87% to 92% in the same period.

Renato da Fonseca, the executive manager for Research and Competition at CNI ( National Confederation of Industry), which ordered the survey, believes the popularity rates are low at this moment for two reasons.

One of them is the debate in social media about the permission for mineral exploration in a protected area in the Amazon forest. The other reason, in his opinion, is that population has not yet noticed the changes in economy, largely publicized by the government.

Legal Trouble

In the latest charges against him, Temer is accused of paying bribes to keep a jailed politician from testifying. He is also accused of leading a group in Congress that took millions of dollars in bribes from companies seeking state contracts.

Temer defeated the first charge of bribery but may face trial for his involvement in the “Gang of the Lower House.”

Since he was appointed president, Temer has pushed through a series of neoliberal reforms, which have been widely condemned by women’s groups, Indigenous organizations, labor unions and environmental activists.

Indigenous people and social movements gathered in Rio de Janeiro to protest against an auction carried out by Temer’s government to sell their ancestral lands in Minas Gerais to mining companies.

Temer is also allegedly trying to use his influence to save Senator Aécio Neves, a member of Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and a principal ally of him.

According to the report, keeping the PSDB in the coalition is essential for Temer’s survival; therefore saving Neves can be efficient for him to ensure partial support of the party.

Senator Neves was caught on negotiating a payment of 2 million reais (about 632,000 dollars) with Joesley Batista, head of the JBS, who unveiled the corruption case and relevant evidences.

Neves had his mandate suspended by the Supreme Court earlier this week because of passive corruption.

tS/ABr

The survey, which interviewed 2,096 Brazilians, was conducted between June 17-19.

Temer, the vice president of president Dilma Rousseff who became the country’s leader when Rousseff was removed by Congress, accused of mismanagement, in what many consider a coup, is embroiled in multiple corruption scandals and has pushed a host of unpopular measures.

Brasil247, a left-leaning online publication, reporting on the results of the survey, highlighted that 75 percent of respondents — a 10 percent increase compared to a survey conducted in May — outright rejected Temer.

The survey showed that 79 percent of respondents preferred Temer’s resignation or an annulment of his presidency and 76 percent agreed that his recent acquittal of electoral fraud charges by the Superior Electoral Court was a flawed decision.

If Temer is removed, or resigns, something that he has adamantly said he will not do, 87 percent of Brazilians prefer democratic elections. Only 4 percent of respondents agreed with indirect elections.

This detail is of utmost importance because if Temer’s presidency is annulled, Brazil’s Supreme Court would confer the right of congressmen and senators to approve indirect elections within 30 days. The term of the presidential substitute would end on Jan. 1, 2019.

teleSUR

Mauricio Funes from El Salvador who has been in charge since March, is top of the list with 84% support, followed by Brazil's Lula with 81%; Chile's Michelle Bachelet comes in third with 78% approval followed by freshman Panamanian leader Ricardo Martinelli with 77% and Colombia's Alvaro Uribe with 70%.

The continental public opinion poll was done during the months of May and September this year, in each of the countries.

The Mitofsky report underlines that the leadership cases of Brazil and Colombia, Lula and Uribe, are "exceptional examples of high public opinion support given the fact that the presidents have been in office for almost eight consecutive years.

The top five are followed by a group of presidents with support in the range of 60 percentage points: Mexico's Felipe Calderón, 62%; Uruguay's Tabaré Vazquez, 61% and Bolivia's Evo Morales, 60%.

The next step includes US President Barack Obama, 52%; Ecuador's, Rafael Correa, 51%; Fernando Lugo from Paraguay, 50% and Guatemala's Alvaro Colom, 46%.

The presidents with below average support include Oscar Arias from Costa Rica with 37%; Alan Garcí­a from Peru with 27% and bottom of the list, Argentina's Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, 23%.

Missing in the poll are Venezuela's Hugo Chavez; Leonel Fernandez from Dominican Republic; PM Stephen Harper from Canada and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega. Apparently "lack of sufficient information" prevented Mitofsky from completing the surveys.

For "very special reasons", Honduras, currently in the midst of a political and institutional crisis, was not included.

Overall the leaders of South America managed an approval average rating of 58%; in North America, 56% and in Central America, 52%.

Mercopress

The Brazilian congressmen wish not only to extend Lula's presidency to 2012 but also do the same to governors, House representatives and senators. Starting in 2012 everyone elected for any of these posts would stay in power for five years and would be forbidden to seek reelection.

One of the authors of the idea, congressman Devanir Ribeiro, from the ruling Workers Party (PT) argues that the change would eliminate the present system in which voters go to the polls every two years.

"We need someone strong, the president has this popularity," says Ribeiro. "Brazil needs a man like him. In the two years that we legislators have left,  we won't be able to foster political reform. So, this idea might end the paralysis that befalls the country every two years due to the elections."

When Ribeiro proposed last year a referendum to allow Lula to run for a third term of office (the constitution was amended during the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula's predecessor, so that Cardoso could be reelected) leaders of the Workers Party called the suggestion an "antidemocratic tactic."

The DataFolha results, which are released in the wake of the publication that Brazil had a 6% GDP growth in the first half of the year,  show for the first time ever Lula with a majority support among people with a college degree (55%), among families whose earnings are above 10 minimum wages, among the Southeast population, the largest (57%) and finally among the metropolitan areas (57%).

The new poll shows Lula's popularity at its highest level since he took office in 2003. DataFolha polled 2,981 people over the age of 16 in 212 Brazilian cities, between September 8 and September 11. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

DataFolha also showed how recent Brazilian presidents fared, presenting the best evaluation each of them had during their term in office:

Fernando Collor de Mello, who resigned to avoid impeachment (1990-1992): 36%

Itamar Franco (1992-1994): 41%

Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-1998): 47%

Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1999-2002): 31%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2006): 53%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2007-2010): 64%

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity declined from 59.9% in July to 50% in September, according to the results of a poll announced by the National Transportation Confederation (CNT). Positive evaluations of the government also fell, from 40.3% to 35.8%.

According to the CNT/Sensus poll, perceptions of corruption rose significantly during the period. In July, 40.3% of the population believed that corruption had increased during Lula’s administration. This percentage now stands at 54.5%.

In comparison with the previous administration, 48.9% think that corruption is greater at present, 16.8% believe that it is less, and 27.6% think that it is the same. The results in may were 26.7%, 31.4%, and 34.4%, respectively.

The survey was done from September 6-8 in 195 municipalities, where two thousand people were interviewed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

The survey also shows that 45.1% of the interviewees believe that the President has not been acting adequately regarding the corruption charges. In July,  31.9% of the population thought that. For 44.8% of the interviewees, Lula has been acting properly, against 47.8% in July. This is a negligible difference since it’s within the poll’s margin of error.

ABr

Latin American markets drifted lower for the most part, due to weakness in the U.S., political concerns in Brazil and a disappointing outlook from Mexico’s Cemex.

Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa Index fell 247.28 points, or 0.85%, while Mexico’s benchmark Bolsa Index dropped 102.88 points, or 0.68%. Argentina’s Merval Index eased 1.43 points, or 0.09%.

Brazilian shares declined, following a poll showing waning popularity for the government, and amid jitters ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting. Analysts widely expect an interest rate cut, and any decision of the bank to keep rates steady would be considered bearish.

On the political front, a poll showed that support for President Lula fell to 50% from 59.9% in July. In addition, the Lower House ethics committee will open a probe tomorrow into corruption allegations against Lower House Speaker Severino Cavalcanti, reported news services.

In other data, the consumer confidence index for São Paulo dropped 16.6 points to 109.5 in September, the first time since April 2004 that the index was below 110.

Mexican issues, meanwhile, retreated as well, due to soft industrial production data released yesterday, and in line with U.S. counterparts.

Fears of inflation and a disappointing earnings report from consumer electronics retailer Best Buy, which generated concerns that the high oil prices may be curbing consumer discretionary spending, pressured stocks north of the border.

In U.S. economic data, the producer price index rose 0.6% in August, versus 1.0% the prior month, and compared to expectations for an increase of 0.8%.

Analysts shrugged off the report, as it predates the surges in oil prices caused by Hurricane Katrina. In other reports, the trade gap shrunk to US$ 57.94 billion in July from US$ 59.49 billion in June, versus predictions for an increase to US$ 60 billion.

In company news, Cemex released preliminary third-quarter results late yesterday. The firm expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization close to US$ 1 billion in the period, up about 50% from the prior year. Sales are seen doubling to US$ 4.4 billion, largely due to the acquisition of U.K.-based RMC Group.

The stock fell, as analysts’ reactions to the news was mixed, with an investment bank noting soft demand in Mexico, Spain and the U.K. Separately, Cemex also announced a non-dilutive secondary share offering.

In labor news, Grupo Mexico’s Asarco unit reported late yesterday that striking union workers at its copper operations in Arizona and Texas had rejected its latest labor contract offer. In addition, Southern Peru Copper Corp., in which Grupo Medico has a stake, warned of weak sales in 2006 due to falling mined metal prices.

Argentine stocks traded sideways for most of the session, in light volume, amid little developments. Of note, in the corporate front, Telecom Argentina filed for creditor protection in the U.S. to protect its assets from creditors who haven’t signed off on the company’s debt restructuring.

Thomson Financial Corporate Group – www.thomsonfinancial.com

The latest National Transportation Confederation/Sensus Institute poll (CNT-Sensus) shows that the popularity of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration remains stable.

The variation was small between May (39.8%) and July (40.3%) of those seeing the government positively. And those seeing the government negatively, 18.8% in May, and 20% in July, also showed only a slight change.

As for the president’s personal performance, of those interviewed 59.9% said they approved, up from 57.4% in May. Those who disapproved were 30.2%, down from 32.7% in May.

This, the 77th CNT-Sensus opinion poll, was conducted between July 5 and 7, in 195 municipalities selected randomly in 24 states in all five regions of Brazil. The poll has an error margin of three percentage points plus or minus.

The poll found that most of those interviewed saw the recent corruption scandal as mainly involving members of Congress and the Workers’ Party (PT).

The percentage of those interviewed who said the scandal was in Congress (Chamber of Deputies) was 35.4%; those who said it was in the PT 31.2%. But those who saw a connection with president Lula were only 12%.

As for the president’s handling of the scandal, 47.8% said it was adequate, while 31.9% said it was inadequate.

According to the president of the CNT, Clésio Andrade, the government’s success in the economic area and social programs explain the approval of Lula.

Satisfaction Index

The poll also shows that the country’s satisfaction index dropped only slightly from May (62.5%) to July (60.7%).

The percentage of those interviewed who said the economy was on track rose from May to July, 37.5% to 40.2%. Those who said the economy was not on track also rose slightly, from 45.2% in May to 46.1% in July.

With regard to the economic future of the country for the next six months, there was a split: 45.6% saying it looked good; 46.8% said it did not look good.

ABr – www.radiobras.gov.br

The index of positive evaluations of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Administration rose from 38.2% in August to 41.3% in September, in the CNT/Sensus’s 72nd round of polling.

In terms of negative ratings, the survey shows a slight decline, from 17.7% in August to 16.4% in September.

For the President of the National Transportation Confederation (CNT), Clésio Andrade, the improvement in the government’s ratings reflects the positive results in the country’s economy.

“What this poll clearly demonstrates is an improvement in the evaluation of President Lula’s Administration, and this shows that the economy is responding. People are perceiving that the economy is really improving from a general perspective.”

The CNT/Sensus poll interviewed 2 thousand people in 24 states between September 21 and 23. The margin of error is +/- 3%.

Agência Brasil
Translator: David Silberstein