Even before taking office, Donald Trump is already flexing his trifecta muscles and threatening the BRICS with imposing 100% tariffs on their imports should they decide to attempt to debunk the US dollar with the creation of their own currency. The Russian leader Vladimir Putin has even accused the US of weaponizing the US dollar, although he is also trying to do exactly the same with the formulation of a new BRICS currency.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections has caused a stir in the BRICS, including, of course, in Brazilian politics. Right-wing Brazilian former president, Jair Bolsonaro, and his “coreligionists” are hopeful that the White House will once again turn in their favor, as it did during the first Trump administration. That is, of course, enough to trigger an explosion in the current left-wing government of Lula da Silva, especially after the Brazilian left suffered a major defeat in the municipal elections in October.
Along with fellow BRICS members, Brazil will see several challenges posed by this new US administration, starting with the nomination of the hardliner Marco Rubio as the next Secretary of State, who has already called Lula da Silva, a “far-left leader.” To make things even worse for the current Brazil-US relations, Donald Trump has also appointed Elon Musk as a member of his staff, and Musk has recently had to face some controversial issues with the Brazilian government’s decision to suspend his social network X in Brazil, a move seen by many as a form of censorship usually associated with countries like China, Russia or Iran in a truly Orwellian fashion.
And as it has been proven, social media is pivotal for the success of election campaigns in today’s world. But, to make the scenario even bleaker for the Lula government, the First Lady of Brazil has recently used some expletives to refer to Elon Musk, who, in turn, promised that the Brazilian far-left would lose the next elections.
On the other hand, the Brazilian far-right apparently will be required to create a new icon, since Jair Bolsonaro will most likely not be able to run in the next presidential elections due to criminal charges he is facing for planning his own domestic version of the 6 January 2021 riots on Capitol Hill, which led Brazil’s Electoral Court to bar him from running for public office for eight years.
However, even if Jair Bolsonaro gets support from the White House, which may threaten the Lula government with sanctions and tariffs, the recent attack against the Brazilian Supreme Court by one of Bolsonaro’s “coreligionists” must have sealed his fate. With that, perhaps his son Eduardo Bolsonaro, a member of the lower house, may be selected to give continuity to the far-right family legacy.
Eduardo Bolsonaro is said to have made three official visits to Washington in the past 12 months. He also attended Trump’s victory celebration in Mar-a-Lago, which indicates that Trump’s ties with the Bolsonaro family remain strong, as does the old adage “birds of the same feather flock together.” Jair Bolsonaro was once named by the media as “the Trump of South America” for a reason.
However, there may not be enough time for the Brazilian right to regain strength. And if the Americans tighten their grip on Brazil, the US may see yet another traditional ally in the Western Hemisphere to embrace China even closer to the chest than it already has. China has replaced the US as Brazil’s main trade partner, with bilateral trade exceeding US$ 160 billion last year.
The leaders from both countries have recently signed dozens of economic and development agreements following the G20 meeting in Rio, including that of building roads to reach the Pacific Ocean, an ambition Brazil holds and has always seen as a disadvantage when compared to the United States, a natural bi-oceanic nation.
In addition, Lula da Silva and Xi Jinping are old school in ideological terms, as both see the “free market system” as a means towards socialism. These two leaders are also birds of the same feather and have flocked together for some time now with ambitious plans in the international scenario, including a bi-national proposal for a peace plan for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. It would not be an exaggeration to say that, given the instability that Vladimir Putin has created for
Russia with his so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, and the conflicting relations that have always existed between India and China over territorial disputes, Brazil, due to the fate and ideology of the current government, will end up becoming China’s strongest economic and political partner within the BRICS.
But if Donald Trump is not particularly concerned with Brazil, he is truly concerned with the incessant growth of China, and seeing China conquering such an important trade partner, which once belonged to the US, may insult his competitive spirit as a businessman. After all, Brazil is the economic and political powerhouse of Latin America, with plenty of natural resources and foodstuff needed by China, particularly soybeans, meat and iron ore.
Trump’s isolationism in his own backyard may prove to be deadly to the US interests in the short run. Furthermore, even before he comes to power, Donald Trump is already raising issues with some of his closest neighbors south of the border, Mexico in particular.
These important US alliances with Latin American countries, and especially with Brazil and Mexico, are fundamental to the stability of the hemisphere but may be slipping through the fingers of the powers that be in the State Department and White House that insist in maintaining their focus in Europe, Middle East and Southeast Asia while ignoring the needs of Latin America.
In the meantime, Brazil and the United States seem to be reaching a turning point in their relations, and they either learn now how to flock with birds of different feathers or there will see a rupture in the Western Hemisphere, not seen since the Cuban-Soviet affairs, except this time, we will be watching a more powerful China making strides in the hemisphere.
What Donald Trump should bear in mind though, is that Brazil has a territory almost 80 times larger than Cuba’s, and a population 20 times larger, as well as the 8th largest economy on the planet. Lula da Silva, on the other hand, must understand that Brazil is becoming ever more reliant on autocratic regimes such as China, Russia and Iran, and that these countries have a very particular agenda that does not consider western values.
This Chinese-Brazilian alliance may lead to a point of no return for Brazilian democracy and way of life, by shifting the paradigms of the region. It is imperative and urgent that Lula da Silva and Donald Trump learn how to flock together for the sake of unity in the Western Hemisphere and for the preservation of western values in the region.
Glauco Ortolano is an Associate Professor at the Defense Critical Language and Culture Program of the Mansfield Center, University of Montana. He has taught at the Lauder Institute of the University of Pennsylvania, and more recently courses in Geopolitics to officers of the US Armed Forces. He was also appointed Peace Ambassador by Le Cercle Universel des Ambassadeurs de la Paix.
The views in this post do not represent those of this publication, nor do they represent those of the author’s employer.
