Analysts Lower Expectations to a 3% GDP in Brazil

    The stagnation of the Brazilian domestic economy in the second half of the year led the market analysts consulted last Friday, November 25, by Brazil’s Central Bank (BC) to lower even further their forecasts for this year’s growth in industrial production.

    According to the analysts, this growth, which was expected to be 3.69% in last week’s survey, will now come to 3.56%. They held to their prediction of 4.50% for the increase in industrial production in 2006.

    Consequently, the outlook for growth in this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the total of all wealth produced in the country – also declined somewhat, from last week’s 3.09% to 3%.

    The survey’s estimate of 4.50% for next year’s GDP growth remained unchanged, as did the analysts’ forecast of 51.60% for this year’s ratio between government debt and the GDP. Their forecast for next year’s debt/GDP ratio rose slightly, from 50.70% to 50.75%.

    The BC survey, published in Monday’s, November 28, edition of the Focus Bulletin, maintained its estimate of US$ 16 billion for this year’s influx of foreign direct investments in the productive sector and raised its estimate for this year’s trade balance (exports minus imports) from US$ 42.40 billion to US$ 42.76 billion, while maintaining the estimate of US$ 35.40 billion for the trade surplus in 2006.

    The higher forecast for this year’s trade surplus is also reflected in the prognosis for this year’s current account balance, which involves all the country’s foreign commercial and financial transactions.

    The previous estimate predicted a US$ 13 billion surplus. This was raised to US$ 13.45 billion. The outlook for next year’s surplus also improved, from US$ 6.30 billion to US$ 6.50 billion.

    These projections are premised on a scenario in which the government’s annualized benchmark interest rate (Selic), which currently stands at 18.50%, falls to 18% in December and is gradually lowered to 15.50% during the course of 2006, and in which the exchange rate of the US dollar does not exceed 2.25 reais this year, nor 2.45 reais next year.

    Agência Brasil

    Tags:

    • Show Comments (0)

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

    comment *

    • name *

    • email *

    • website *

    This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

    Ads

    You May Also Like

    zzz

    While the US Looks Eastward Brazil Is Emerging as a Nuclear Superpower

    On Thursday, July 31, Brazilian authorities gave the final go ahead to the civilian ...

    Brazil Trade with Arab Countries Expected to Grow 20% in 2006

    Trade between Brazil and the 22 countries that belong to the Arab League grew ...

    President Barack Obama

    Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba Greet Obama with Hope and Skepticism

    The Brazilian government has made it clear that it hopes that the new American ...

    Brazil: Of Best-Sellers and Better Reads

    The crisis of literature is not only Brazilian. It is felt on the world ...

    In Brazil the Left Thrives

    The big winners of Brazil’s 1964 military coup, unlike what the Brazilian military think, ...

    Sepultura's latest album

    Before Ending US Tour in NY, Brazil’s Sepultura Will Crisscross Country

    Brazilian/American metal band Sepultura will be in New York for one show on Monday, ...

    Brazil’s Wooing the Middle East

    The sales from the state of Paraná, in the South of Brazil, to the ...

    Brazilian coffee for export

    Brazil Coffee Exports Reach Record US$ 3.8 Bi in 12 Months, a 25% Growth

    Coffee exports from Brazil totaled US$ 2.72 billion from January to September, representing an ...

    Brazil Starts August with US$ 904 Million Foreign Trade Surplus

    Brazil exported the equivalent to US$ 2.333 billion in the first week of August ...

    Civil construction in Brazil

    Shrinking Lasted Only Three Months. Brazil Is Growing Again

    The Brazilian economy grew at its fastest pace in over a year and a ...