Last week, the forecast was 1.05%. As regards 2015, the estimate was maintained at 1.50%.
The projection for industrial output growth, this year, has also worsened, moving from a decline of 0.9% to 1.15%. As regards 2015, the estimate was revised from 1.8% to 1.7%.
The forecast for trade surplus (balance of exports minus imports) was revised from US$ 2.01 billion to US$ 2 billion for this year, and from US$ 9.4 billion to US$ 9.8 billion, in 2015.
The estimate for current transaction deficit (goods and services imports versus exports) was revised from US$ 80.75 billion to US$ 81.5 billion, in 2014, and from US$ 75 billion to US$ 74.1 billion, this year.
The Brazilian Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br, seasonally adjusted) was down 0.18% in May from April. This was the second month-on-month decline this year. According to the revised figures, the decline in February was 0.09%.
May-on-May, activity was down 0.17%, based on unadjusted figures, since equal periods are being compared. Economic activity was up 1.93% in the 12-month period ended May and 0.58% year-to-date.
The IBC-Br is a means for assessing Brazilian economic activity. The index provides information on activity levels in the three sectors of the economy: industry, retail and services, and agriculture.
Outbound United States dollars have outnumbered inbound in Brazil. The foreign exchange flow showed a US$ 5.427 billion deficit in the first two weeks of July.
The negative result was both a result of trade operations (export- and import-related foreign exchange operations), at US$ 1.312 billion, and financial operations (investment in bonds, profit and dividend remittances to foreign countries and foreign direct investment, among other operations), which ran a US$ 4.114 billion deficit.
Year-to-date through July 11, the Forex flow showed a US$ 1.280 billion deficit. During the period, trade operations posted a US$ 1.578 billion surplus and financial operations had a US$ 2.858 billion deficit.
Santos
The port of Santos, in the state of São Paulo, moved 9.8 million tons in June, up 5.4% from June last year. It was the best result ever for the month. Export volume was up 8.1%, offsetting a 0.7% decline in imports June-on-June, as per the results released by state ports authority Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo (Codesp). Container shipping was up 15.4% to 325,000 TEUs (twenty foot-equivalent units).
The export products with the highest volumes shipped in June were soy bean, bran and oil (2.3 million tonnes), up 18.9% from June 2013; coffee bean (132,000 tonnes), up 47.2%; gasoline (146,800 tonnes), up 50.6%; and fuel oil (218,600 tonnes), up 85.1% from June 2013.
The highest import volumes were those of liquefied petroleum gas (84,700 tonnes), up 58.6%; and naphtha, a petroleum product, at 41,400 tons, up 632%.
H1 throughput was 52.9 million tonnes, down 1.6% from H1 2013. Container shipping, which has higher added value, was up 8% to 1.7 million TEUs.
H1 exports stood at 36.7 million tonnes (down 3.1% from H1 2013) and imports amounted to 16.1 million tonnes (up 1.9%). The 14.8% decline in throughput of sugar, the most shipped product at the port, had a significant impact on the decline in exports, as did maize (-52.5%) and pulp (-27.0%). H1 export highlights included soy bean, bran and oil (up 8.7%), coffee bean (19.8%) and gasoline (15.6%).
Imports of fertilizers, the main import product at the facility, were up 5.4% to 1.3 million tonnes, liquefied petroleum gas imports were up 58.6% to 462,400 tonnes, wheat imports were up 19.8% to 772,100 tonnes and naphtha imports were up 111.9% to 146,600 tonnes.