Lula Arrives in Tehran Amid Iran’s Optimism and World’s Skepticism

    Lula and Ahmadinejad

    Lula and AhmadinejadBrazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva arrived in Tehran around 11 pm on Saturday. The Iran government seemed optimist with Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s efforts to mediate a dialog between Tehran and the great powers at a time when the stage is set up to introduce sanctions to punish the Iranian government.

    “There are conditions to reach an agreement,” said a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehmanparast, referring to an exchange of Iranian uranium for nuclear fuel from Turkey.

    Lula will meet today with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. While Brazilian diplomats in Tehran denied the existence of new proposals to present to Ahmadinejad by Lula, other officials traveling with the Brazilian president announced that there will be new items included in the negotiations.

    On the streets Iranians seem happy with the visit of Lula who is being shown in huge posters in the city side by side with Ahmadinejad. The opposition, however, says it feels frustrated with the trip arguing that the government is using the Lula-Ahmadinejad encounter as proof that Iran is not isolated in the world community.

    Last week the Iranian ambassador in Brazil, Mohsen Shaterzadeh, declared that his country is willing to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but did not offer details.

    May 11, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehman-Parast, declared that the ideal formula for a solution to the controversy surrounding his country’s nuclear program would be an exchange of low-enriched uranium (used to fuel a nuclear power plant) for uranium enriched to 20% (which can be used for research and nuclear medicine).

    And at the same time the official Iranian news agency, Irna, explained that a uranium exchange had been proposed by Brazil and that the Iranian government was grateful for the proposal.

    However, Brazilian authorities deny having made such a proposal. What president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and foreign minister Celso Amorim do say is that Brazil opposes additional sanctions and favors further negotiations at this moment as the Iranians have a right to develop their nuclear program as long as it is for peaceful objectives.

    This probably seems confusing – and it is.

    First, calls (and demands) for Iran to renew business relations (including inspections) with the IAEA are not new. Discussions regarding the Iran – IAEA relationship have been in progress, on and off, with and without Iran, over a period of many months.

    Second, the uranium exchange proposal was made a few weeks ago by Western nations (led by the United States, England and France) but every time the moment arrives to work out the details the talks get derailed. Up to the Mehman-Parast declaration, Iran had been insisting that the exchange had to take place in Iran under exclusively Iranian supervision. That is not acceptable to the Western nations. 

    Lula left on a seven-day, five-nation trip to the Middle East and Europe. The prime minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is also in Iran. Brazil and Turkey are rotating members on the UN Security Council at the moment and both oppose sanctions. According to presidential spokesman, Marcelo Baumbach, Brazil and Turkey could join forces to mediate negotiations between Iran and the international community.

    It should be pointed out that a tidal change of opinion has occurred in some Western capitals regarding Lula in his new role as would-be Middle East power broker. Ten days ago he was one of Time magazine’s most influential leaders. Today the French foreign minister is warning that Lula must be careful lest the Iranians fool him. And a Washington Post blogger (Jackson Diehl) bluntly says “Brazil’s Lula has become Iran’s useful idiot.”

    Presidential spokesman, Marcelo Baumbach, says Lula is not taking any new proposals to Tehran. It might be a good idea to come away with something tangible.

    Trade with Iran is high on Lula’s agenda. Between 2002 and 2007, bilateral Brazil-Iran trade rose from US$ 500 million to almost US$ 2 billion. At the moment, Brazil’s biggest trade surplus in the Middle East is with Iran.

    Lula has never been shy about being a traveling salesman for Brazil. He actively seeks out foreign investments. So, trade is high on the agenda. But this trip is also dealing with a series of controversial issues.

    There is United Nations reform, changes in the Security Council and the fight to get Brazil a permanent seat on the council. There is the international financial crisis. There is the Iranian nuclear program. There is Honduras.

    In Iran Lula will be signing agreements and seeking commercial opportunities. According to presidential spokespersons, the idea is to “strengthen the political dialogue between Brazil and Iran.”

    After Iran, Lula goes to Madrid for the 6th Latin American, Caribbean and European Union Summit. On the agenda, the future of the group, the European crisis, Haiti and climate change. Lula, Rafael Correa of Ecuador, Cristina Kirchner of Argentina and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela all threatened to boycott the summit if Porfirio Lobo of Honduras attended, because his December election is not seen as legitimate.

    Lula, Correa, Kirchner and Chavez insist that Lobo extend an amnesty to the deposed president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, and his supporters. The diplomatic solution for this impasse was to uninvite Lobo to the summit and have him attend a parallel event with EU representatives.

    Last stop for Lula is Portugal. He will attend the 10th Luso-Brazilian Summit (“cúpula” in Brazil, “cimeira” in Portugal). In meetings with Portuguese businessmen, Lula will explain investment opportunities in Brazil during the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.

    ABr

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    • Show Comments (7)

    • Robert Rhodes

      Because global warming is so extreme, the fabric of space and time may be causing temporary gravity wells associated with 2 of 25 earthquake predictions that may approach an extinction event. Fireballs are US in Ohio (correct) and Australia (correct). About ~100 miles from “Ohio (5+)” under 5/16 – 22/10 predictions, “Curious Waterloo Region residents are asking questions after a fireball was spotted in the skies on Tuesday night. Michelle Tremblay-Emary and Kim Schultz … “It was just huge at first and then it got smaller and it just went so slow,” says Tremblay-Emary” (“Mysterious object spotted above Wat. Region”; southwesternontario.ctv.ca, 5/26/10). This make ~80 fireball events from asteroids, meteors, comets, and space junk entering Earth’s atmosphere and being reported in spaceweather.com and in news.google.com since 10/5 – 11/08. 71 were correlated with the 2-week model for earthquake and/or volcano predictions using the same regional standards. This makes 46 fireball events correlated with significant regionally predicted volcanoes. 66 predicted quakes with fireballs. Well within “Australia (5+)” under 5/16 – 22/10 predictions, “Astronomers and police say that the flares seen across a 360km-long stretch of the Top End coast were probably caused by a meteor shower. … Superintendent Bruce Porter said police received many calls about the flares at about 9pm on Tuesday. Supt Porter believes the flares were probably a meteor shower” (“Cops investigate NT UFO invasion”; NIGEL ADLAM; ntnews.com.au, 5/27/10). This make ~79 fireball events from asteroids, meteors, comets, and space junk entering Earth’s atmosphere and being reported in spaceweather.com and in news.google.com since 10/5 – 11/08. 70 were correlated with the 2-week model for earthquake and/or volcano predictions using the same regional standards. This makes 46 fireball events correlated with significant regionally predicted volcanoes. 65 predicted quakes with fireballs.

      Our flamers can’t spell “fool” without “U” as all science becomes a “hoax” with the right amount of money. “Whoo boy. It must be rough out there … to have seminars on how to deal with us rowdy ruffian “deniers”. … Here’s the text … The Victorian Government, along with other governments in Australia and across the world, rely on the scientific community for advice on climate change and its likely impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is recognised as the international authority on climate change science and denialist views often lack rigor and credibility in comparison. … Thanks to David Archibald for the tip” (“Australia’s Victorian government creates seminar to “deal with denialism””, more editorial, scientific lying, and propaganda abuse by Anthony “20-watt dim bulb” Watts, residential weather “genius” extremist Republican and Christian paperweight at Newstalk1290, Deer Creek Broadcasting; wattsupwiththat.com, 5/26/10). “”Truth has got gravity.  Truth attracts.  The truth bursts through. … and that’s why those of us who deal with it are so confident and comfortable doing so.”” (“Wednesday Quotes: The Healthy Truth”; the old, ugly and evil Rush “LABI” Limbaugh, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity – extremist Republican and Christian outlets for the GOP and other T-baggers”; rushlimbaugh.com, 1/6/10).

    • Robert Rhodes

      The following deep quake may only drive predictions of 5/16 – 22/10 in North America and India. “Brazil-Peru Border Rocked By 6.5 Magnitude Quake” (Windsor Genova – AHN News News Writer; allheadlinenews.com, 5/24/10). “B). … the specifics of the Giulaino – Gansu Model (5/23 – 29/10) … 2). Moon Walk Model: … b). Simon Bolivar Model (5/23 – 29/10): Bolivia (6+) – Peru (7+)” (GBRWE 5/23 – 29/10’s Extreme Planetary Warnings for Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Solar/Terrestrial Flares from Human Activities; Robert Rhodes, Supplemental; GBRWE 5/23 – 29/10, 5/22/10).

    • Robert Rhodes

      So far there has been 2 correct global warming quake and 1 global warming sunspot on the farside of the Sun predictions.

      The following 2 significant quake makes for a total of 2 (8%) of 25 correct “impossible” global warming earthquake predictions. Each has the actual odds of 1/25 times 1/25 from random chance at best. This quake is well within the 2-week model, the 5.5 Richter minimum, and the Easter Island region predicted under the 5/16 – 22/10.. The good people with bad web maps at the USGS reported with poorly colored numbers and letters, the significant quake – Magnitude Richters … Date … Region: “ 5.7 … 2010/05/20 … SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND” (earthquake.usgs.gov). This quake is well within the 2-week model, the 4.5 Richter minimum, the Mid-Indian Ridge region predicted under the 5/16 – 22/10, and the 1st week of the 5-week (not included in the original) Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (5/16 – 22/10). The good people with bad web maps at the USGS reported with poorly colored numbers and letters, the significant quake – Magnitude Richters … Date … Region: “ 4.9 2010/05/19  …  MID-INDIAN RIDGE” (earthquake.usgs.gov).

      Other than predicting life around other stars, the most interesting thing about AGW sunspot prediction is the ability to predict sunspots ripped out of the farside of our star. Recent synoptic images show a big sunspots on the farside: 2010.05.17_12; and 2010.05.18_00 (soi.stanford.edu/data/full_farside/crots/2096.html). “Sunspot number: 0 … Updated 18 May 2010 … Spotless Days … Current Stretch: 10 days” (“What’s up in Space”; Dr. Tony Phillips; spaceweather.com, 5/19/10). Not needing any sunspots to transfer energy throughout the solar system, a small CME (coronal mass ejection) blasts off of southeastern limb of the Sun around 2010/05/01 09:3024 – toward Mercury, Jupiter, and/or Uranus (“THE SUN NOW” – “LASCO C3”; sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov) (planets by fourmilab.ch, 2010-05-19).

    • Luigi

      Brilliant Lula
      [FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL]

      Iran’s Nuclear Coup
      Ahmadinejad and Lula expose Obama’s hapless diplomacy.

      What a fiasco. That’s the first word that comes to mind watching Mahmoud Ahmadinejad raise his arms yesterday with the leaders of Turkey and Brazil to celebrate a new atomic pact that instantly made irrelevant 16 months of President Obama’s “diplomacy.” The deal is a political coup for Tehran and possibly delivers the coup de grace to the West’s half-hearted efforts to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

      Full credit for this debacle goes to the Obama Administration and its hapless diplomatic strategy. Last October, nine months into its engagement with Tehran, the White House concocted a plan to transfer some of Iran’s uranium stock abroad for enrichment. If the West couldn’t stop Iran’s program, the thinking was that maybe this scheme would delay it. The Iranians played coy, then refused to accept the offer.

      But Mr. Obama doesn’t take no for an answer from rogue regimes, and so he kept the offer on the table. As the U.S. finally seemed ready to go to the U.N. Security Council for more sanctions, the Iranians chose yesterday to accept the deal on their own limited terms while enlisting the Brazilians and Turks as enablers and political shields. “Diplomacy emerged victorious today,” declared Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, turning Mr. Obama’s own most important foreign-policy principle against him.

      View Full Image

      EPA
      Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

      The double embarrassment is that the U.S. had encouraged Lula’s diplomacy as a step toward winning his support for U.N. sanctions. Brazil is currently one of the nonpermanent, rotating members of the Security Council, and the U.S. has wanted a unanimous U.N. vote. Instead, Lula used the opening to triangulate his own diplomatic solution. In her first game of high-stakes diplomatic poker, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is leaving the table dressed only in a barrel.

      So instead of the U.S. and Europe backing Iran into a corner this spring, Mr. Ahmadinejad has backed Mr. Obama into one. America’s discomfort is obvious. In its statement yesterday, the White House strained to “acknowledge the efforts” by Turkey and Brazil while noting “Iran’s repeated failure to live up to its own commitments.” The White House also sought to point out differences between yesterday’s pact and the original October agreements on uranium transfers.

      Good luck drawing those distinctions with the Chinese or Russians, who will now be less likely to agree even to weak sanctions. Having played so prominent a role in last October’s talks with Iran, the U.S. can’t easily disassociate itself from something broadly in line with that framework.

      Under the terms unveiled yesterday, Iran said it would send 1,200 kilograms (2,646 lbs.) of low-enriched uranium to Turkey within a month, and no more than a year later get back 120 kilograms enriched from somewhere else abroad. This makes even less sense than the flawed October deal. In the intervening seven months, Iran has kicked its enrichment activities into higher gear. Its estimated total stock has gone to 2,300 kilograms from 1,500 kilograms last autumn, and its stated enrichment goal has gone to 20% from 3.5%.

      If the West accepts this deal, Iran would be allowed to keep enriching uranium in contravention of previous U.N. resolutions. Removing 1,200 kilograms will leave Iran with still enough low-enriched stock to make a bomb, and once uranium is enriched up to 20% it is technically easier to get to bomb-capable enrichment levels.

      Only last week, diplomats at the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges it is using to enrich uranium. According to Western intelligence estimates, Iran continues to acquire key nuclear components, such as trigger mechanisms for bombs. Tehran says it wants to build additional uranium enrichment plants. The CIA recently reported that Iran tripled its stockpile of uranium last year and moved “toward self-sufficiency in the production of nuclear missiles.” Yesterday’s deal will have no impact on these illicit activities.

      The deal will, however, make it nearly impossible to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program short of military action. The U.N. is certainly a dead end. After 16 months of his extended hand and after downplaying support for Iran’s democratic opposition, Mr. Obama now faces an Iran much closer to a bomb and less diplomatically isolated than when President Bush left office.

      Israel will have to seriously consider its military options. Such a confrontation is far more likely thanks to the diplomatic double-cross of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazil’s Lula, and especially to a U.S. President whose diplomacy has succeeded mainly in persuading the world’s rogues that he lacks the determination to stop their destructive ambitions.

    • Robert Rhodes

      My apologies. There may be no correct for the Kurils as the USGS reposted the quake as 5.3 after my posting.

    • Robert Rhodes

      The following significant quake makes for a total of 1 (4%) correct of 25 “impossible” global warming earthquake predictions. Each has the actual odds of 1/25 times 1/25 from random chance at best. This quake is well within the 2-week model, the 5.5 Richter minimum, the Kuril region predicted under the 5/16 – 22/10, and the 1st week of the 3-week Vague Japanese Model (5/16 – 22/10). The good people with bad web maps at the USGS reported with poorly colored numbers and letters, the significant quake – Magnitude Richters … Date … Region: “5.7 … 2010/05/17 … KURIL ISLANDS” (earthquake.usgs.gov). But, if you are a geologist, “So far it has proved impossible to predict earthquakes in any meaningful way—that is, of a given magnitude, at a given place, on a given day. … because of the complexity of the problem and the lack of information” (“All shook up”; From Economist.com; economist.com, 6/26/09). But if you are causing AGW for fun, profit, death, and destruction while ruling the US and the rest of the world as a parasite within the bad ole GOP, “Global Warming: Connecting the Dots … the whole concept is silly! … We have had continental plate shifts … baloney … that we are causing a catastrophe from “people who don’t believe in God … the result of a divine creation from elsewhere” (“The Warming Tax!”; 4/12/05) and “I am … total credibility … Do not read anything written by any “scientist” who tells you there is man-made … global warming” (“The Limbaugh Peace Initiative: Amnesty for the Duped Warmers”; 2/15/10) (rushlimbaugh.com).

    • Robert Rhodes

      With condolences, “Cayman Islands (5+) … Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (6+) – South Africa (4+)” regions were 3 of 25 regions and intensities predicted earlier and showing significant activity. “A. …1. Regular qualitative predictions for catastrophic, violent ecosystems (~quakes to ~CMEs) killing far less than global warming illnesses. Iranian cleric Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi will be partially correct in that extremist Republicans and Christians’ “inherent” divine right to dump global warming filth from here to the heavens will royally screw ~1,000+ into their graves and rip titanic sunspots out of the Sun’s far side. … a perfect storm of global warming earthquakes … B. Including the odd chance of JJBAL Fireballs with each prediction, with included statistics, the specifics of the Giulaino – Gansu Model (5/16 – 22/10) of extreme earthquake warnings among tectonic energy lines with individual predictions for regions (magnitude in Richters) are: 1. Ohio (5+) – South Carolina (4+) – Cayman Islands (5+) – Guatemala (6+) – Eastern Island (6+) – Argentina (5+); 2. the 35th Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (5/16 – 22/10): a. Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (6+) – South Africa (4+) – Mid-Indian Ridge (5+) – Australia (5+) – Carlsberg Ridge (6+) – Sumatra (8+) – Java (6+), b. Albania (5+) – Ionia Sea (5+) – Isle of Rhodes (5+) – Israel (5+), c. Hindu Kush (6+) – Kyrgyzstan (6+) – Kazakhstan (5+); and 3. Vague Japanese Model (5/16 – 22/10): Marianas (7+) -Volcano Islands (6+) – Hokkaido (7+) – Kurils (6+) … C. GBRWE official experimental quake, volcano, and other models … Because of the inherent warning factors while trying to maximize the prediction for the affected region, a correct in this earthquake modeling is anything within 0.5 Richters below given prediction and anything above the prediction for the region. … 2. 2-week model – unless stated otherwise, ALL predictions get at least 2-weeks … 3. 3-week model … Vague Japanese Model … 5. 5-week model … DEQ-ORM-Esso-Kill-the-Planet Model,” (GBRWE 5/16 – 22/10’s Extreme Planetary Warnings for Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Solar/Terrestrial Flares from Human Activities; Robert Rhodes, Supplemental; GBRWE 5/16 – 22/10, 5/15/10).

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