Best Case Scenario for Brazil in 2009: 10% Decline in Exports

    Oranges, a Brazilian export product

    Oranges, a Brazilian export product Brazil's ACCs (Adiantamento sobre Contratos de Câmbio – Advances on Exchange Contracts), which are used for financing exports, reached US$ 1.112 billion in the first week of December and US$ 44.146 billion in the accumulated result for the year so far.

    The figures were taken from the flow of exchange, i.e. dollar inflow and outflow in the country, and were disclosed December 10 by the Central Bank of Brazil. During the same period last year, the figures were US$ 830 million and US$ 43.212 billion, respectively.

    In the case of advance on export contracts (ACE), the surplus was US$ 441 million last week and US$ 42.5 billion in the accumulated result for the year so far, as against US$ 515 million and US$ 42.5 billion, respectively, in the same periods of 2007.

    In the face of the worsening of the international crisis, in mid-September, exporters faced problems obtaining financing. However, according to the vice president at the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), José Augusto de Castro, after the Central Bank held auctions in order to finance exports, there has been "a significant improvement" in the granting of funding to the sector. He stated, however, that the problem now is reduction in global demand, which is an effect of the crisis.

    Castro claimed that despite the improved availability of funds, banks are now stricter when it comes to granting credit, and both exporters and buyers of products are distrustful because of the crisis.

    Furthermore, the prices of commodities are lower. According to Castro, the ones most affected by this situation are micro and small-sized businesses, which comprise 90% of the 20,000 exporter companies in the country.

    In a best-case scenario, according to Castro, exports would decrease by US$ 20 billion (10%) in 2009, compared with the current year. In the accumulated result for this year up until the first week of December, Brazilian exports total US$ 187.112 billion.

    Castro preferred not to disclose the "worst-case scenario." He called attention to the fact that even the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade has postponed the disclosure of the country's export goals for 2009.

    The information will only be made available next year. "If the government were to disclose it today, it would be a negative figure, but that scenario might change."

    ABr

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    • Show Comments (17)

    • ch.c.

      Dear—Rat & Dumbass—sage !!!!!
      1) 50 % of our exports go to the EU,
      2) WE DO NOT EXPORT COMMODITIES QUOTED IN US$….. CONTRARY TO THE 66 % of all the Brazilian exports !
      3) Not being as dumbass as Brazilians are, Noooooo developed country on earth (outside the USA of course) publish their exports in US$…BUT ALWAYS IN LOCAL CURRENCIES

      Because what was the “Magical Trick” of emerging nations for 5 years ?
      Simple, due to the US$ weakness, and to show EXTRAORDINARY EXPORTS GROWTH….you translated right away in US$ !
      And now you are trapped like rats at your own TRICKS !
      NEVER EVER will you see Swiss stats from Switzerland Government, agencies or medias in a currency outside the Swiss Franc !
      Never ever will you see EU stats mentionned in non Euros !
      While in Brazil stats coming from your FILTHY GOVERNMENT AND MEDIAS YOU ALWAYS SEE
      us$ XXXXXXXXX …against XXXXXXXXXX…a growth of XX %
      or
      US$ XXXXXXXXX (Brl YYYYYYYYYY)….against Us$ XXXXXXXX (Brl YYYYYYY)….a growth of X %

      instead of
      Brl YYYYYYYYY… against Brl YYYYYYYY….a growth of X % (much lower growth of course)

      Only millions of Brazilians Dumbasses like you…are swallowing the STRANGE MATHS OF YOUR CHEATING GOVERNMENT LEADERS !
      Their problems now…is that due to the US$ strength…their filthy maths have obviously reversed and not for the better.

      Dumbass SAGE, do you know who is CEPEA ? I bet you dont know otherwise you would not be as junkie as you are !
      Here are THEIR stats, showed in Constant Brl (inflation adjusted), on a yearly basis, from 1994 to 2007, for the Brazilian Agribusiness Industry, and in details :
      Ohhhhh…are you finally surprised that afterall the Brazilian Agribusiness Sector has been a MIRAGE AND NOT A MIRACLE PERFORMANCE ???????

      Dont worry, this is exactly what POPULISM is : Stats cheating, lying, hiding and manipulating !
      Your filthy governments leaders dont expect you to understand the real numbers !!!!!!!
      They just expect you to swallow what they are telling you and they expect your applauses so that you will re-elect them as you did !
      That is why your education, especially in maths and economics is so bad.

      Now swallow…..the REAL reality ! You have it with CEPEA !
      It stands for…… Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics !

      LAUGH….LAUGH….LAUGH….LAUGH….LAUGH !!!!!

      You see DUMBASS SAGE, what Brazil did for 5 years, is like if the EU would have published all their exports stats in US$ not in Euros….during the US$ weakness.
      Or if for the last 6 months, the USA would have shown their exports stats in Brazilian Currency OR IN Euros….to show EXTRAORDINARY EXPORTS GROWTH RATES !!!!!

      I bet most economists, most medias, most readers and ALL political oppositions….WILL HAVE REFUTED THIS TYPE OF MATHS AND STATS.

      Not so in Brazil ! Not even from the political opposition or the large medias. Not even by Buarque or Fitzpatrick.

      Enjoy your idioty and lack of common sense.

    • João da Silva

      [quote]I can laugh at my country[/quote]

      Please allow me to join in!

      [quote]bring them on[/quote]

      Bring who. Need specs of the goods and services to send.

      [quote]Harper is our baby Bush [/quote]

      Be careful what you say. Even Igloos have ears. I heard that he is constructing special Gulags for political opponents like you and Jon. 😥

    • The cure for Ch C

      I love Canuck jokes!
      I can laugh at my country…bring them on 😛

      BTW, Harper is our baby Bush 😉

    • João da Silva

      Jon
      How is life under HarperÀ‚´s Dictatorship, Jon ?

    • jon

      The Cure,

      Don’t reveal you are a Canadense. Joao has a thousand Canuck jokes!!!!!! 😉 😉

    • João da Silva

      [quote]I’m a white Canadian you idiot[/quote]

      Must be from Yukon. Should blend with the snow.

    • João da Silva

      Lloyd Cata
      [quote]Brazilian would agree to this? Only a ‘very serious nuclear accident’ would change public opinion.
      Because of Brazils early commitment to bio-fuel (1973?), the economic aspect of energy on the Brazilian economy is VERY positive presenting upside[/quote]

      Excuse me, Lloyd . Our respected President Gen. Geisel decided that it was not worth depending on the Oil (and Sheik Yamani) and during the late 70À‚´s, good ole Ernesto started this bio-fuel program. Of course, at that time the cost of production of Ethanol was higher than its price at the pumps. Then came good ole Pres. Figueiredo and he advanced the program. Ernesto and Fig were great visionaries and for some “known” reasons, the entire world seems to think that they were a bunch of clowns (they were not, I can assure you).Now we have some “Rulers” that do not know the difference between “Mono-Fuel”, “Bio-Fuel”, “Tri-Fuel” or “Multi-Fuel”. Somehow I get the impression that you have no knowledge of the Brazilian History (especially 1964-85).

      Having said all the above, I rest my case, Dr.Cata. It is your turn to rebut my comments.

    • Lloyd Cata

      Best case, worst case, who cares? In the end its all about energy! There are now only 2 currencies viable in this market, they are energy and information.
      No matter the numbers, because we already know that “figures lie and liars figure”, the policy, direction, and indicators are positive with respect
      to “energy independence”. That is essentially the name of the game in the progressive economies in the world. The fact that this is a “renewable,
      long term asset of the Brazilian economy. This is what is meant by “leveraging energy resources”. Ethanol allows Brazil to bridge across any world
      energy crisis or fluctuations. Not only in economic terms, but also in the environmental areas. Consider the likelyhood of a “carbon tax” accross most
      of the worlds major economies to combat “global warming”. Movement to increase this production and use in the consumer market is an “anti-tax”
      saving by the Brazilian people.
      Having said that, it is noted that more environmentally protected land has been stolen to facilitate this increased production, and in the production of
      soy (also can be used for alcohol/diesel). This is completely unacceptable and may, in fact lead to export tensions against Brazilian products. Remember
      that world market opinion is now the “engine of export”. Right now Brazils market opinion is positive but a concerted campaign against Brazil for
      excess deforestation could have economic consequences beyond the energy sector. Remember that this clean energy is not free energy. Chopping
      down the Amazon to produce this energy is totally unacceptable to world opinion. However, Brazil again has leverage with nuclear energy with the
      capability of enriching its own uranium; something the US now wants Brazil to relinguish so the US and Euros will supply the uranium. What sane
      Brazilian would agree to this? Only a ‘very serious nuclear accident’ would change public opinion.
      Because of Brazils early commitment to bio-fuel (1973?), the economic aspect of energy on the Brazilian economy is VERY positive presenting upside
      pressure on economic growth, inflation, and the REAL. Brazil as a clean energy exporter is very exciting!

    • The cure for Ch C

      by the way
      All these stats you throw around…do you ever do any research to see how the numbers have improved during the last five years???

    • The cure for Ch C

      hahaha
      I’m a white Canadian you idiot!

      So you aren’t a racist…hmmm. Seems to me constantly labeling all Brazilians as stupid, cheating and liars is pretty much equal to saying Blacks are all criminals…that’s pretty much Racism as clear cut as it can be.

      I’m not going to waste anymore time responding to your comments on this site because I have a REAL life to live…but please tell me before I go: Why Brazil?
      Do you really think it is the worst country with the worst people on earth?
      Have you ever been to Brazil?
      Do you blog like this on english news sites about China, India and Russia?
      Do you think you are helping anyone with your stats or is it just you saying my country is better than your country?

      Seriously, I’m very curious as to what makes and A**HOLE like you tick?

    • ch.c.

      continued
      BUT….Feel free to continue your self boasting…with Nooooo substantiated COMPARATIVE stats !
      What else can you do ? Nothing…of course ! Nothing…as usual !
      Even the Brazilian education system has been ranked at 46th out of 50….using a Brazilian source…not foreign source ! Article published here….on this site….wether you like or not ! Just scroll..and scroll…you could find it !

      What can you reproach me ? Saying time and again you are ranked 46th out of 50 for education…using a brazilian source ???????
      Is this racism ????????? Laugh….laugh….laugh…laugh !
      Reality is that Brazilians minority are THE racists against the majority of…. Brazilians poors !
      And you prove it daily….if you look AT YOUR OWN STATS !!!!!

      Come on, come on ! Dont be more idiot than you already are !

      I know…I know….REALITY hurts your latino EGO ! BUT…BUT…BUT….that still remains REALITY.

    • ch.c.

      To Joao and the brazilians junkies !
      Joao
      The connection with the 2 names are they are Brazilians Braggers…too ! smiles

      to the junkies
      – if you love swalloowing lies, feel free. that is exactly what your filthy government wants !

      Swiss subsidies :
      – Agriculture amounts to ONLY 1,5 % of our GDP as per World CIA Factbook…wether you like or not.
      – we are not going to produce ZERO food, in case of war, political crisis or whatever. Remember we do not have sea access !
      – we do not count on Brazil to feed us. We have seen it at the heigth of the bubble phase : Brazil banned rice exports, and so did others emerging nations. Never ever trust a Brazilian has been proven !
      – we care for our farmers, contrary to Brazil and other emerging nations. Better to be small farmer in my country, than family farmer in Brazil…NO DOUBT AND THIS….. despite the Brazilian family farmer has a much larger farm than an average Swiss Farmer.

      Outside of this
      – we dont subsidies our other industries, not even export oriented industries….contrary to Brazil and other emerging nations. Fact is that Brazil provide 80 % of their agricultural subsidies to LARGE EXPORT ORIENTED Agribusiness and mega farmers. Only 20 % goes to your 5,5 millions family farmers. BNDES also offer SUBSIDIZED RATES AND LOANS to many different industries…for both local productions and for export oriented industries.
      Just look at Odebrecht in Ecuador : they got a BNDES loans for work outside Brazil. And of course what was built there is of more than bad quality.
      Lets say…. Brazilian quality !!!! Hey hey
      Feel free to check by yourself…if you dont trust me as usual….and visit the BNDES site ! Simple….isnt it ? I invent…NOTHING !!!!!!

      – our VAT tax is the EU regions LOWEST. Our gasoline price is lower than in France, Italy, Spain etc etc.
      Same for cigarettes. Our butts are 40 % lower than in the UK, 25 % lower than in France. EU tourists in our country always fill their car tank HERE and leave with boxes of butts !

      Let me surprise you more :
      I visited Pao Da Acucar web site to find out the brazilian FOOD prices…even at today reduced Brazilian currency.
      Conclusion ? some prices are lower than here, some prices are more expensive than here. But overall, lets assume a food caddy, they are may be 10-20 % cheaper than here.
      Great ? Not so…in view of the difference in income ! The food is extremely expensive in Brazil in view of the Brl 1200.- (us$ 500.-) average monthly income as per the IBGE stats (not mine….mind you).
      Switzerland is the country with lowest percentage of food costs when compared to the average income. Our food basket costs is 12,5 % of our average income !

      As to my….. cheaters, liars and hiders time and again statements, I wish someone prove me wrong…FIRST…with facts !
      This is not racism…to my knowledge and understanding ! iF YOU CONSIDER THE SAD TRUTH…..as either insulting or racist…YOU PROVE HOW IDIOT YOU REALLY ARE !
      If I am telling someone he IS AN IDIOT….WHERE IS THE RACISM ?????

      AND TO MY CRITICS AGAINST BRAZIL…THEN LETS SING TOGETHER……
      Viva Lula……due to him YOU pay your cars with 35 % interests rates.
      Viva Lula……due to him YOU pay your mortgage rates at 13-15 % interests rates.
      Viva Lula……due to him YOU pay consumers goods at 55 % interests rates.
      Viva Lula……due to him YOU pay your overdrafts at 200 % interests rates.
      Viva Lula……due to him HE PAYS the World Highest Interests rates…after inflation. But still not high enough…IN VIEW OF YOUR CURRENCY PERFORMANCE RECENTLY !!!!

      DOWN MY COUNTRY…due to them WE PAY MORTGAGES RATES AT BELOW 3 % (A friend just renewed his mortgage yesterday at 2,5 % for 5 years)
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because they are ranked World First for Environment !
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we export 25 times more per capita than Brazil ! AND DESPITE WE HAVE NO SEA ACESS…and nothing underground contrary to Brazil !
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have one of the lowest unemployment rate…on earth !
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have not only more tourism than the gigantic Brazil, but also wealthier tourists than those going to Brazil !
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have repeated same tourists….not Brazil.
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have 100 % of our roads that are paved, while Brazil has 5 %…a rate even lower than most sub saharan countries !
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have a very low crime rate, while Brazil one of the world highest…even as per Brazilians stats….wether you like or not.
      DOWN MY COUNTRY…because we have on average a 15 % regular Current Account Surplus, while Brazil has seldom a small surplus and now has a RECORD CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT !

      I could continue on and on and on and on…for a long while…if you wish !

      RIGHT ???????

      WELLLL….LOSERS LOSE….WINNERS WIN !!!!! IDIOTS REMAIN IDIOTS, SMARTERS REMAIN SMARTERS !

    • The cure for Ch C

      the percentages
      The Swiss subsidize 70 percent of their Argi-business compared to 30 percent in the EU. p and you are complaining about Emerging countries protectionism???

    • The cure for Ch C

      A true Swiss
      Ok, that’s it…i’m tired of your psycotic Brazil bashing…I’ve already refuted many of your ‘facts’ in a few previous acticles…now its time to get down and dirty.

      You are basically a Racist. Countless references to Brazilians in general as ‘cheating, lying, etc’

      You really are a sicko.

      Ohh…yesssss!

      I remember you bashing Brazil for protectionism…what a joke! Look at your own damn country!

      The Swiss subsidize p of their Argi-business compared to 0 of the EU. p!

      Also, how about all the corruption and thieving by Brazilian politicians? We all know there is lots of that, but what do you think the total value of that amounts too? Do you think it is anywhere near the value of all the illegal money dumped into Swiss Bank Accounts?

      To me that is far more morally corrupt…laundering money is basically legal in your current do to your GREED as a country!

      I won’t even get into what your despicable excuse for a country did in WW11…Swiss neutrality = Greed and No Balls!

      Now GFY!

    • João da Silva

      Ch.C
      [quote]Not even by Buarque or Fitzpatrick. [/quote]

      Why drag these two into picture? I fail to see the connection. 8)

    • sage

      laughing hyena – chc
      what about swiss exports – so dependent on large overseas markets……

      chc, get to work, do the research & file a report on this subject w/i 24 hours.

    • ch.c.

      Castro preferred not to disclose the “worst-case scenario.” He called attention to the fact that even the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade has postponed the disclosure of
      LAUGH…LAUGH….LAUGH….LAUGH…LLAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH…LAUGH !!!!!!

      Even the best case scenario is for DOWN 10 % !

      But…but…but…..LULA THE LIAR….will of course disagree ! HE HAS GIVEN HIS GUARANTEES !!!! RIGHT ?

      Chuuuuuut…..everything is kept secret !!!!!!!!

      😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉 😀 😉

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