I was disheartened to read Mr. Amaral's recommendation that Brazil get into the nuclear weapons business ("We Need the Bomb," Brazzil, May 2002). As a Carioca in my soul, and an American planning to live in Rio de Janeiro, I asked myself: Why would I. as a Brazilian, want to have atomic weapons? Who would be the enemy against whom I would use them? Whom do I fear in Latin America or elsewhere? Why would any country want to attack me? What possible benefits would accrue to Brazil except the highly questionable "attention getting" that Mr. Ricardo alludes to...that nobody will pay any heed to a country without atomic weaponry? I find that absurd!
Further, the fact that many Brazilian business people speak more French than English is not only immaterial, but is probably not an accurate statement. Be that as it may, who really gives a darn who speaks what language when it comes to developing nuclear capabilities? As an American, I am diligently trying to learn Portuguese! I want to learn your Brazilian ways and language; not vice versa. (I'm still struggling with são and não...but I'll get the hang of it sooner or later!)
Additional specious reasoning offered is that Brazilians should get France to help because some Brazilians speak French and we framed our constitution on the French example. Finally, because Brazilians know Paris better than they know New York. Well, so do I know Paris better than I know New York...so what?
These are terribly weak arguments for such a profound and far-reaching conclusion that Brazil should enter the nuclear race in order to achieve some kind of spurious world recognition as a nuclear player. The implications would be staggering. I speak only for myself, as an American planning to spend the remainder of his years in Brazil, and say: Don't fall for the simplistic reasons that are being offered. Start to consider the ramifications.
Think about the size and shape of your country; and about the threat to your major city centers. Think about concentrations of populations...the 18 million in São Paulo and the 11 million in Rio, for example. In spite of the length and breadth of your borders, these large city populations are very vulnerable to nuclear attack...although by whom I have no idea.
Look at the current daily feud between India and Pakistan and ask yourself if you would want that sword of Damocles hanging over your head and the heads of your families. You don't want that! (I want to say "we don't want that," but I don't feel I can exercise that privilege until I live with you).
Mr. Amaral says that "nobody" will take Brazil seriously unless they develop nuclear weapons...that Brazil will not be considered acceptable for inclusion in the United Nations Security Council. Big deal! Let's just look at the composition of the UNSC as of now: the big five permanent members are, of course, US, China, France, Russian Federation, and the UK. Now look at the temporary members and their nuclear capability: NONE!!!
And look again at the names of those countries and compare your enthusiasm for them vis-à-vis your own marvelous country of Brazil. They are: Argentina, Bangladesh, Canada, Jamaica, Malaysia, Mali, Namibia, Netherlands, Tunisia, and the Ukraine. Did you find any nuclear powers in the above list of ten? No! Yet all ten are on the United Nations Security Council. Brazil could very easily qualify to serve on the council without a nuclear arsenal.
The Shock
When the Bible talks of the "nuclear family," it is not talking about weapons of mass destruction. It's talking about mothers and fathers and their children, all of whom would be placed in immediate jeopardy in a nuclear conflict. Just what would happen to Rio, for example, if a nuclear device were exploded over the city?
Let me give you some idea if such a catastrophic event were to occur. I don't claim to be an expert in nuclear weapons, but I am not without some qualifications, having studied the matter as a US Army officer during the "cold war" with the USSR. Too, a great deal of information can be obtained on your own simply by going to your web browser and searching under "nuclear effects." That's all there is to it.
Now, on to Rio. In this scenario, we find that a 25-megaton bomb has been exploded over the city. It's a beautiful, sunny Sunday afternoon, the beaches are packed, and the sidewalks are crowded with walkers and bikers from Leblon north toward Glória/Catete. It's an airburst in the vicinity of Flamengo or Laranjeiras, which is fairly central.
By recent surveys, there are about 11 million men, women and children in Rio. What happens to them will chill your soul. First, I will offer an overview of the tremendous forces that are unleashed by the bomb, then I will have someone describe the incredible pains that will be experienced by so many families...not only in Rio, but in the outlying areas, and perhaps around the entire world.
PBS has an Internet page (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/mapablast.html) that allows you to map a nuclear blast.
Let's drop a 25-megaton bomb in downtown Rio. (The bombs dropped by the Americans over Hiroshima and Nagasaki had 12 and 22 kilotons respectively. They killed 120 thousand people immediately. A 25-megaton bomb is roughly the equivalent of 2000 Hiroshima bombs or 1000 Nagasaki bombs.)
That's the response you will get from the site:
1st Ring - 12 psi Radius: 6.5 miles
[Note: The outside edge of this shaded area represents the 12 psi (pound per square inch) ring. Blast pressure within the ring is greater than 12 psi; blast pressure outside the ring is less than 12 psi.] The remains of some buildings' foundations are visible. Some of the strongest buildings—those made of reinforced, poured concrete—are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population within this area are dead.
2nd Ring - 5 psi Radius: 10.7 miles
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, are completely blown out. As you move from the center toward the 5 psi ring there are more structural skeletons of buildings standing. Single-family residences within this area have been completely blown away—only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
3rd Ring - 2 psi Radius: 20 miles
Any single-family residences that are not completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.
4th Ring - 1 psi Radius: 30.4 miles
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of
the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings are injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured
from thermal radiation—the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.
Note: All of Rio de Janeiro will fit in the center of the burst out to the 2 ring, which has a radius of 20 miles/32 km)...
You might now try a similar experiment with another bomb over São Paulo or any other city in Brazil you may choose.
The Horror
Now let's paint with small brush strokes. The 25-megaton bomb described above actually beggars the imagination. It simply does not hit close enough to home...which is not intended as a play on words. By permission of Russell D. Hoffman, author of The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, we will reach into your gut and describe the horrors...those instant, and those lingering over time. Please prepared to be shocked. And, while it is not my intention to manifest fear in the reader, some fear must be experienced if you are going to understand even a glimmer of the catastrophic results of a nuclear attack.
Excerpts from "The Effects of Nuclear Weapons" Copyright (c) 1999 by Russell D. Hoffman (c) 1999:
"A year ago this month (May, 1999), India surprised the CIA—and nearly everyone else except, perhaps, Pakistan, who seems to have been nearly ready—by setting off several underground nuclear explosions. Then Pakistan, claiming self-defense, followed suit. But what would actually happen if India and Pakistan had a nuclear exchange?
Most people in India and in Pakistan (and in the U.S. and Brazil) probably do not know that as many as 9 out of 10 people—or more—who die from a nuclear blast, do not die in the explosion itself. Most people probably think that if they die from a nuclear blast, they will simply see a flash and get quickly cooked. This will be true for many, but not for all!
At this juncture, we turn our attention to what would happen to the families in Rio de Janeiro, for the outcomes are universal; Indian or Pakistani; American or Brazilian; rich or poor; fat or lean...the outcomes are the same for all nations. Those in Rio, within approximately a six square mile area (for a 1-megaton blast), will indeed be close enough to "ground zero" to be killed by the gamma rays emitting from the blast itself. Ghostly shadows of these people will be formed on any concrete or stone that lies behind them...and they will be no more.
They literally won't know what hit them, since they will be vaporized before the electrical signals from their sense organs can reach their brains. Of the many victims of a nuclear war, these are the luckiest ones. Outside the circle where people will be instantly vaporized from the initial gamma radiation blast, the light from the explosion (which is many times hotter than the sun) is so bright that it will immediately and permanently blind every living thing: every man, woman and child...and farm animals, pets, birds while in flight...all whether their eyes are opened or closed. This will happen for perhaps 10 miles around in every direction—further for those who happen to be looking towards the blast at the moment of detonation. Even from fifty miles away, a 1-megaton blast will be many times brighter than the noonday sun. Those looking directly at the blast will have a large spot permanently burned into their retinas, where the light receptor cells will have been destroyed. The huge bright cloud being nearly instantly formed in front of them (made in part from those closer to the blast, who have already "become death"), will be the last clear image these people will see.
Most people who will die from the nuclear explosion will not die in the initial gamma ray burst, nor in the multi-spectral heat blast (mostly X-ray and ultraviolet wavelengths) which will come about a tenth of a second after the gamma burst. Nor will the pressure wave which follows over the next few seconds do most of them in, though it will cause bleeding from every orifice. Nor even will most people be killed by the momentary high winds which accompany the pressure wave. These winds will reach velocities of hundreds of miles an hour near the epicenter of the blast, and will reach velocities of 70 miles per hour as far as 6 miles from the blast. The high winds and flying debris will cause shrapnel-type wounds and blunt-trauma injuries. Together, the pressure wave and the accompanying winds will do in quite a few, and damage most of the rest of the people (and animals, and structures) in a huge circle—perhaps hundreds of square miles in area.
Later, these people will begin to suffer from vomiting, skin rashes, and an intense unquenchable thirst, and their hair falls out in clumps. Their skin will begin to peel off. This is because the internal molecular structure of the living cells within their bodies is breaking down, a result of the disruptive effects of the high radiation dose they received. All the animals will be similarly suffering. Since they have already received the dose, these effects will show up even if the people are immediately evacuated from the area—hardly likely, since everything around will be destroyed and movement will be minimal.
But this will not concern them at this time: Their immediate threat after the gamma blast, heat blast, pressure wave and sudden fierce wind (first going in the direction of the pressure wave—outwardly from the blast—then a moment later, a somewhat weaker wind in the opposite direction), will be the firestorm which will quickly follow, with its intense heat and hurricane-force winds, all driving towards the center where the radioactive mushroom-shaped cloud will be rising, feeding it, enlarging it, and pushing it miles up into the sky.
The cloud from a 1-megaton blast will reach nearly 10 miles across and equally high. Soon after forming, it will turn white because of water condensation around it and within it. In an hour or so, it will have largely dissipated, which means that its cargo of death can no longer be tracked visually. People will need to be evacuated from under the fallout, but they will have a hard time knowing where to go. Only for the first day or so will visible pieces of fallout appear on the ground, such as marble-sized chunks of radioactive debris and flea-sized dots of blackened particles. After that the descending debris from the radioactive cloud will become invisible and harder to track; the fallout will only be detectible with Geiger counters carried by people in "moon suits". But all the moon suits will already be in use in the known affected area.
Probably, no one will be tracking the cloud. One U.S. test in the South Pacific resulted in a cigar-shaped contamination area 340 miles long and up to 60 miles wide. It spread 20 miles upwind from the test site, and 320 miles downwind. Where exactly it goes all depends on the winds and the rains at the time. It is difficult to predict where the cloud will travel before it happens, and it is likewise difficult to track the cloud as it moves and dissipates around the globe. While underground testing is bad enough for the environment, a single large above-ground explosion is likely to result in measurable global increases of a whole spectrum of health effects. But the people who were affected by the blast itself will not be worrying about the fallout just yet.
A 1-megaton nuclear bomb creates a firestorm that can cover 100 square miles. A 20-megaton blast's firestorm can cover nearly 2500 square miles. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were small cities, and by today's standards the bombs dropped on them were small bombs. The Allied firebombing of nearly 150 cities during World War Two in Germany and Japan seldom destroyed more than 25 square miles at a time, and each of those raids required upwards of 400 planes, and thousands of crewmembers going into harm's way. It was not done lightly. And, they did not leave a lingering legacy of lethal radioactive contamination.
In the span of a lunch hour, one multi-warhead nuclear missile can destroy more cities than all the incendiary raids in history, and the only thing the combatant needs to do to carry off such a horror is to sit in air-conditioned comfort hundreds or even thousands of miles away, and push a button. He would barely have to interrupt his lunch. With automation, he wouldn't even have to do that! The perpetrator of this crime against humanity may never have seen his adversary. He only needs to be good at following the simplest of orders. A robot could do it. One would think, that ONLY a robot WOULD do it.
Nuclear war is never anything less than genocide.
The developing firestorm is what the survivors of the initial blast will be worrying about—if they can think straight at all. Many will have become instantly "shell-shocked"—incapacitated and unable to proceed. Many will simply go mad. Perhaps they are among the "lucky" ones, as well.
The firestorm produces hurricane-force winds in a matter of minutes. The fire burns so hot that the asphalt in the streets begins to melt and then burn, even as people are trying to run across it, literally melting into the pavement themselves as they run. Victims, on fire, jump into the ocean or rivers, only to catch fire again when they surface for air. Yet it is hard to see even these pitiable souls as the least lucky ones in a nuclear attack.
For the survivors of the initial blast who do not then die in the firestorm that follows, many will die painfully over the next few weeks, often after a brief, hopeful period where they appear to be getting better. It might begin as a tingling sensation on the skin, or an itching, which starts shortly after the blast. These symptoms are signs that the body is starting to break down internally, at the molecular level.
The insides of those who get a severe dose of gamma radiation, but manage to survive the other traumas, whose organs had once been well defined as lungs, liver, heart, intestines, etc., begin to resemble an undefined mass of bloody pulp. Within days, or perhaps weeks, the victim, usually bleeding painfully from every hole and pore in their body, at last dies and receives their final mercy.
But this too will probably not be how most victims of a nuclear attack will die. A significant percentage, probably most, of the people who die from a nuclear attack will die much later, from the widespread release of radioactive material into the environment. These deaths will occur all over the world, for centuries to come. Scattered deaths, and pockets of higher mortality rates, will continue from cancer, leukemia, and other health effects, especially genetic damage to succeeding generations.
Nuclear weapons do not recognize the end of a war, or signed peace treaties, or even the deaths of all the combatants. They simply keep on killing a percentage of whoever happens to inhale or ingest their deadly byproducts.
Some deaths will occur hundreds and even thousands of miles away, because low levels of ionizing radiation are capable of causing the full spectrum of health effects, albeit at a lower rate within the population. Not to mention the radioactive runoff from the rivers and streams that flow through the blast area and the area under the radioactive mushroom cloud's drift. It may carry its deadly cargo for thousands of miles, raining a fallout of death only on some cities, and not on others. It will land upon nations which had not been involved in any way in a nuclear exchange, for nuclear weapons do not recognize international borders.
My country (the United States) has lived under the Russian and Chinese threat of nuclear war for many decades now, and it is not a pleasant thought. This is nothing to dance about. There is no benefit to having, or using, nuclear weapons."
Saying No
There is more to Russell's article, and I recommend you complete the reading of it sometime soon. And, as Russell further admonishes, he thinks, and I heartily agree, the world would be a better place if we all stopped and said, "I will not be a part of this. I do not need these weapons, for I would never commit this sin against my own children, nor against my neighbor's children, nor against my enemy's children, nor even against my enemy. I choose not to be a part of this madness."
There is a greater battle mankind must fight than against each other. Humanity's fight right now, is for humanity's general survival despite depleted and poorly used resources, environmental degradation (there is none greater than that from a nuclear explosion), dwindling effectiveness of antibiotics and other wonder drugs, an uneven distribution of available food, knowledge and wealth, and against weapons of mass destruction."
Russell D. Hoffman may be reached at rhoffman@animatedsoftware.com
Russ's primary area of expertise is in the high tech field of electro-magnetic pulse effects from nuclear weapons, but his contribution to Brazzil above is greatly appreciated. His URLs: http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/no_nukes/tenw/nuke_war.htm to see rest of article, or http://www.geocities.com/mothersalert/nuclearwar.html
Well, that's a harsh pill to swallow, I know, but I don't apologize for it. I asked myself if, as an American, I am on firm ground when I criticize the arguments of Mr. Amaral because it is, in fact, his country and not mine. As a former US Army officer, however, who is very cognizant of the devastating effects of nuclear weapons, and of the extremely long-term radiation effects on both victims and real estate, I became dismayed at the very thought that anyone would suggest Brazil enter this arena.
I further felt that, as an economist, he might be better occupied with trying to solve some of the oppressing ills of the poor and under-privileged...perhaps by analyzing the trade offs of the costs of a nuclear program vis-à-vis alleviating the economic conditions described in the same May 2002 issue of Brazzil entitled "Two Brazils", where we learn that "one in every four workers (24.4 percent) in Brazil earn the minimum wage of 200 reals, around $80) or less a month. In the Northeast the situation is even worse, with 46.2 percent of the workers making minimum wage or less." Another item in the article reveals that approximately 7,500,000 Brazilians don't have refrigerators in their homes, therefore, have no way to preserve their food.
Ye gads, let's have some meaningful priorities in government programs, but don't make The Bomb one of them. And please don't accuse me of being "brain dead" if I disagree with the need for "the bomb". Brazil doesn't need an "atomic saber" to rattle to gain respect in the international community. She is already quite the Lady, and worthy of the great respect with which she is currently held, at least from my view.
Brazil doesn't need atomic bombs to prove her worth, for her worth is apparent...which begs the question: Why does Mr. Amaral think Brazil is not respected? Where does that idea come from? Well, I'll close with a recommendation, a concept of a Brazil being neutral like Switzerland. Be the Switzerland of South America, if you can.
Don't ever be stampeded into a nuclear program. Make up your mind that you won't ever embark upon such a path...come hell or high water.
Colonel Thomas J. Towle, the author, is a retired US Army officer who has served in a number of very responsible positions. In addition to his formal education, which includes a BS in Marketing, an MS in Management and Economics, and a Doctorate in Ministry, he attended the Army's Command & Staff College at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas.
He is a former Army aviator, who served as a company commander in Germany in the Third Armored Division, and as a Battalion Commander in Vietnam, culminating his career as the Army's Chief Armament Officer on the General Staff in the Pentagon.
He knows weapons! He hastens to add that he hopes Mr. Amaral realizes that his remarks (Tom's) are not "ad hominem," but simply a heartfelt response to any suggestion that Brazil should enter the atomic arena...a suggestion that almost moves Tom to tears.
He sees it as a sword of Damocles that will hang over the necks of every country that has nuclear weapons, including his own USA. He finally reminds us, as did our Cristo Redentor, that "those who live by the sword must die by the sword."
Towle can be reached at: towlet@juno.com
