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Brazil Has a Lot to Learn from the US Primaries PDF Print E-mail
2008 - November 2008
Written by Cristovam Buarque   
Tuesday, 09 December 2008 20:36

Democrats debate during primariesThe U.S. presidential candidates in the general election debate only a few times, but the debates among the candidates seeking their party's nomination through the primaries and caucuses take two years. In the past two years, the future president, Barack Obama, emerged.

He was not a member of the Democratic Party bureaucracy; he was not the candidate of the party machine; he was not even that well known. He did not have high ratings in the public-opinion polls. Two years of debates consolidated the idea that, as he said during the campaign, "It was possible."

This is something we do not have in Brazil. The debates remain closed off here and do not even occur within many political parties. Blocs of political parties join together to pick a single candidate, thus denying the voter the possibility of choosing among options.

Last month, Senator Pedro Simon called upon all the politicians to involve themselves in the debate about the future President of Brazil. He is correct: now is the time for us to begin to evaluate Lula's administration and to define where we want to go, what president we want, what direction, what orientation, what alternative project for Brazil we are seeking.

Were we to analyze the Lula administration, we could say that, despite the two years remaining of his eight years in office, Brazil has advanced in this time, just as it has advanced in these 20 years of democracy.

From the political point-of-view, one can say that President Lula succeeded in assembling an immense mass of Brazilian society with his words, his prestige, his popularity, which is among the highest levels enjoyed by any Brazilian president. That prestige, in the meantime, caused the Brazilian population to regress in consciousness.

From the societal point-of-view, there was an undeniable advance in the programs initiated since the time of President José Sarney - the distribution of milk, the Bolsa-Alimentação (cash transfers for food) and Vale-Alimentação (food stipend), the Vale-Transporte (public-transportation stipend).

This administration, we can say, is highly generous towards the poorest sector of society. That generosity can only be an advance when compared with the traditional selfishness of the Brazilian elite. In a society in need of a much greater leap forward, however, this advance is a modest, limited one. Above all, since this administration was expected to usher in a revolution.

Now, in relation to the economy, President Lula is maintaining a responsible use of resources, continuing the economic policies of the Itamar Franco administration. That sense of responsibility deserves praise. In short, Lula is doubtlessly one of the best presidents Brazil has had, but he is not, as we had hoped, the first in a new historical cycle, as was Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

The next president cannot regress. He or she has to go forward. The president must lead us in tearing down the two walls that are hindering the formation of Brazilian civilization: the wall of inequality that divides us here within; and the wall of backwardness that separates us from the other civilized countries.

The choice of the road, the leap forward that we need, demands new, inspirational leadership. We must, therefore, carry out Senator Pedro Simon's proposal: a long debate over the choice of the candidates, one that includes the voters' participation from the very start.

So that in the next presidential election the voters will not simply ratify the choice made by the political party machines, by the public-opinion polling institutes and by the media.

Cristovam Buarque is a professor at the University of Brasília and a PDT senator for the Federal District. You can visit his website - www.cristovam.org.br - and write to him at cristovam@senado.gov.br.

Translated from the Portuguese by Linda Jerome LinJerome@cs.com.



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Comments (40)Add Comment
...
written by ....., December 10, 2008
Politics does create strange bedfellows, does it not Senator? smilies/cheesy.gif smilies/grin.gif smilies/sad.gif smilies/cry.gif
Brazil has NOTHING to learn from the United States political system...
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, December 10, 2008
The US political system is nothing to write home about. It is the most manipulated system in the world.

It is not a real democracy. The American political system is made of two wings of the same bird.

There is a big misconception around the world about how Barack Obama became president elected of the United States – people want to believe that the American people are open minded and they elected the first black president in US history.

But the reality is the George W. Bush and the Republican Party wrecked the United States in the last 8 years and they are leaving behind just the carcass of the country that they inherited from Bill Clinton 8 years ago.

In November 2008 the Democratic Party could have had even Cacareco as its presidential nominee and he would have beaten the Republican candidate.

The Bush administration helped create the biggest international financial crisis since the Great Depression and today the US economy is spinning completely out of control and it is descending into the first Great Depression of the new millennium.

Note: (Cacareco, a rhinoceros at the São Paulo zoo, was a candidate for the 1958 city council elections with the intention of protesting against political corruption. Electoral officials, of course, did not accept Cacareco's candidacy, but he eventually won 100,000 votes, more than any other party in that same election.)

During this election cycle the Democratic Party primaries had 1 debate repeated 24 times. In every debate they covered the same stuff.

In 2006 Noam Chomsky one of the leading intellectuals in the United States – he was interviewed on The Charlie Rose Show and the discussion was about democracy and what is a democratic political system. They discussed the subject for the entire hour and he was covering most major countries around the world and close to the end of the show Charlie Rose told Noam Chomsky the conclusion that we get is that there is no real democratic system anywhere around the world.

Noam Chomsky said no. There is one country in the world that has a real democratic system and that country is Brazil. Then he went to describe the Brazilian democratic system and election system in Brazil as the only sample available anywhere on our planet of a real democracy with many major parties representing a very wide range of groups of the population.

You have to be brainless to think that the United States political system is good model to be copied. It is completely obsolete and Americans can’t figure out even how to count the votes in a accurate and efficient way in this day and age.

The fact that the political system in the US is nothing more than 2 wings of the same bird – is finally catching up with reality and is resulting in the sudden economic collapse of the US economy.

I hope Brazilians don’t follow in the footsteps of the United States, since the Brazilian political system is by far a much superior system than the US political system.

.
What a Democracy!
written by bo, December 10, 2008
There is one country in the world that has a real democratic system and that country is Brazil.


Where it's not ones right to vote it's his OBLIGATION!!! Travel up to the northeast of Brazil during election time Ricardo and I can take you to dozens of municipalities where the candidates are outright buying votes, mostly for 10-15-20 reais! If ones lucky he'll get a cesta basica!

Extreme poverty and lack of education lead to one thing....MANIPULATION. And Brazil has mastered that quite well.
Brainless
written by Ric, December 10, 2008
Would be a good description of someone citing Chomsky as someone to listen to while at the same time expecting respect.

Everybody, roll your eyes on three. One, two, three, Roll.
...
written by João da Silva, December 10, 2008
Noam Chomsky said no. There is one country in the world that has a real democratic system and that country is Brazil.


Undeniably, Noam Chomsky is a man with great sense of humor.
Ricardo
written by Gringo, December 10, 2008
Not that I’m a big Chomsky basher, but he really hasn’t produced anything that widely acclaimed since Manufacturing Consent. Apart from being cited by a certain Latin American Dictator in the UN who think he’s DEAD, Chomsky’s name isn’t that relevant these days. Dropping it doesn’t make one sound smarter, just out of the loop.

As to specifics, Bo raised a crucial one. Not renewing a passport and allowing one to leave Brazil because they chose not to vote is not very democratic. Neither is holding congressional votes or Senate Ethical hearings in secret. Having political members change parties more frequently than they change their cash-lined cuecas doesn’t make for a solid democracy either. Still, without doubt, the healthiest democracy is the one with the most informed electorate, and well, ahhh....you know where this is leading.

I’d agree that Brazil shouldn’t follow or adopt the US system (you folks do know there are other nations out there other than the US and Brazil, right?) but Ricardo, to say that the Brazilian system is the best is simply delusional. Then again, most nationalists are delusional. Especially, in my experiences traveling, the expatriated ones.

Big points for bringing up Cacareco, though. The patron Saint of the now dismantled Canadian Rhinoceros Party. We certainly could have used their levity over the last couple of weeks while Canada faced its own democratic test.
Hey Gringo buddy!
written by ..., December 10, 2008
Long time no see? Welcome back and lets raise the adrenaline levels in the discussions at hand, OK?

Costinha

PART-1: The inadequacy of the American Political System as a Model for Brazil in the 21st Century // Reflections, Hopes and Suggestions
written by Augustus, December 10, 2008
While the democratic system of the United States of America could have been considered as one of the few shinning examples of Freedom for the world to follow at the onset of the Nineteenth Century, when the citizens of most other nations on Earth lived under the oppressive restrains of Tyranny, because it has remained virtually unchanged for the past 200 years, its stagnated political system could scarcely be regarded as an appropriate model for any nation to follow today, in light of the overwhelming scientific and particularly technological transformation undergone during the same period.

As such I would agree with the bulk of Mr. Amaral’s comment, particularly the following:
The US political system is nothing to write home about. It is the most manipulated system in the world.
It is not a real democracy. The American political system is made of two wings of the same bird.

In addition, I further agree with the view that the George W. Bush and the Republican Party wrecked the United States in the last 8 years; yet, for the record, must cordially object to his allegation that the current government is leaving behind “the carcass of the country that they inherited from Bill Clinton”, which, along with the view of political analysts of various persuasions, in many ways deferred the significant American decline which is current under progress…

Yet, I digress… The crux of the matter under consideration is the obsolete nature of a system where:
-Voting is based on an “Electoral College”, an extremely cumbersome system whereby the citizens cast votes for electors, which I personally consider an absurdity, it seems to be exceedingly Undemocratic for two reasons:
1.These Electors are “technically free” to vote for anyone eligible to be President, even though, in practice they tend to pledge their “vote for specific candidates (belonging to his/her party). Because there are no implicit guarantees that the electors will vote for the candidate of the voter’s choice, I fail to see the “democratic” nature of this method
2.Because the candidate who receives most of the votes statewide wins and thereby receives ALL the electoral votes from such state, it would appear that any residual semblance of a democracy gets even further diluted with this provision. Furthermore, given the immense disparity in the number of electoral colleges which exists between large and small states, this absurd method renders the vote cast by a citizen of a smaller one (e.g. Connecticut & Rhode Island) significantly less relevant than his/her counter part in a larger state (such as California & Texas).
-The existence of just two political parties (and the apparent inability of most Americans to realize that their choices are significantly restricted following two centuries of consolidation) is not only subject to corruption by manipulation of a given candidates eligibility (as well as of any agenda brought for discussion), but it also renders it nearly impossible for new voices and ideas to emerge, thus precluding any realistic attempt of “third party” candidates and/or political parties running for office, as they appear even laughable for contemplating the possibility… (Wisconsin being the sole exception to this rule). As such, under these circumstances, I also find that I’m in agreement with Mr. Amaral
There is a big misconception around the world about how Barack Obama became president elected of the United States – people want to believe that the American people are open minded and they elected the first black president in US history.

While I am a strong supporter of Mr. Obama and have great expectations for his character, vision, balance and the potential ability of his proposed Team, I now consider his emergence less of a token of how the American System may have matured; but rather as a sign of desperation of a crumbling system which “felt compelled to appear” to be evolving, by using the same rigid methodology to promote members of racial minorities and females. As such I view any attempt to portray Mr. Obama’s election as proof of American political maturity and/or transformation a misnomer at best…
PART-2: The inadequacy of the American Political System as a Model for Brazil in the 21st Century // Reflections, Hopes and Suggestions
written by Augustus, December 10, 2008
-Finally, I consider it unbelievable that a nation as technologically advanced as the USA remains utilized extremely primitive, manual voting system, some of which based on crumbling voting machines from the 1950-60’s (e.g. the one I used this year had a lever which was “stuck” and I was unable to cast a vote regarding a motion specific to the state of New York). As such, in this case I find that I must agree with Mr. Amaral’s following statement:
You have to be brainless to think that the United States political system is good model to be copied. It is completely obsolete and Americans can’t figure out even how to count the votes in a accurate and efficient way in this day and age.


As for the appropriate model for Brazil to follow, because I have had minimum exposure to the current political process (except for its enormous, shameful, and endemic corruption, its shameful, typically Latin American Populism), as I have never lived in our country since the relatively benign Authoritarian Military regime has been replaced by the current system. Yet, despite all of its absurd, nefarious corrupt/populist nature, I find it surprisingly more efficient and less criminal than most other Third World countries, for otherwise we would not have such and incompetent, nearly socialist president who emerged from the very bottom of the social political strata.

The bottom line, however, being that significant change is absolutely required. Yet, as implied above, the model to be adopted should not be the American but rather a less rigid, more dynamic system such as a Parliamentary Democracy, where by a nation, composed of a healthy number of SECULAR political parties (at least 3) the ideologies of which would include the “health views” from across the political spectrum (hopefully with the exclusion of its very extremes: Marxism/Trotskyism in one end to Fascism/National socialism).

Naturally, those who are familiar with my political persuasion would not be surprised when I refer to Sweden, the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark as the most appropriate models which, after undergoing any required, relevant amendments vis-à-vis our culture, might prove to be a desirable course of action for Brasilia to follow.
COSTINHA - welcome back!
written by Augustus, December 10, 2008
Costinha
Where have you been?
I missed your hilarious, outrageous, blunt (but sincere) comments! Really!
I will be looking forward to reading your entries again.
Cheers
...
written by asp, December 10, 2008
noam chumpski ? here is a guy who wrote a huge essay on colombia and its problems. he devotes page after page to the evils of the military industrial complex and its hold on colombia and a couple of paragraphs on the farc as "freedom fighters"....

no ,i dont respect his opinion
asp
written by João da Silva, December 10, 2008
noam chumpski ? here is a guy who wrote a huge essay on colombia and its problems. he devotes page after page to the evils of the military industrial complex and its hold on colombia and a couple of paragraphs on the farc as "freedom fighters"....


I am glad you joined in, Vizinho. You seem to have a thick file on this fella Chumpski unlike me. Is he some sort of a comedian ? Clue me in further about this subject with your customary "bluntness". smilies/wink.gif
Augustus
written by João da Silva, December 10, 2008
Yet, despite all of its absurd, nefarious corrupt/populist nature, I find it surprisingly more efficient and less criminal than most other Third World countries, for otherwise we would not have such and incompetent, nearly socialist president who emerged from the very bottom of the social political strata.


Unless one pays very close attention to this statement of yours, he/she would think that you were holding our Electronic Voting machines responsible for having elected "an incompetent,nearly socialist president who emerged from the very bottom of the social political strata". smilies/cheesy.gif

BTW, the original machine was developed and tested first in our state with success. This was almost 20 years ago. In the recent Municipal elections in SP city, the result was announced before 10 P.M. ie within 5 hours after the closing of the polls.
JOAO - MUCH RESERVATION!!!!! voting machines
written by Augustus, December 10, 2008
Whereas I'm all for advance...
I TEST software... I KNOW what bugs can do...
and WHAT MANIPULATION can cause...
there is a wonderful movie about it...
About a lady tester on one such systems - found/reported the bug and was serious harrassed by her company... CHECK IT OUT
Augustus
written by João da Silva, December 10, 2008
I TEST software... I KNOW what bugs can do...
and WHAT MANIPULATION can cause...


So do I. As I said in one of my earlier posts, I learn't with the "Injuns". The original machine was good and I don't know how it is now. I think you should ask the lads and lasses in your Bangalore office to check this out while I "consult" with mine in Bombay. smilies/grin.gif

BTW, do you know if the Indians use Electronic Voting machines? Worth checking.
noam chomski
written by asp, December 10, 2008
is actualy a very inteligent professor at mit and author and respected genius of linguistics

chompski is the kind of guy you wish was on your side in a debate, linguistics is his forte. he can really manipulate the english language

he is very knowledgeable , except, he leaves out half of the story

he can tell you all the mistakes and errors and conspiricies the united states government did, and, it is true, but, he totaly leaves out the other side of the picture. it is not the whole truth and therefor cancels his crediblility

i am no expert on chompski, but, when ever i try to read him or listen to him speak, his glaring one sided point of veiw, although expertly linguisticly perfect, has more holes than a peice of swiss cheese

he is not the person i want to guide me through the political minefeild realities of the world

hey, joao , ill be at saraiva at shopping iguatemi tomorrow between 7 and 8 , at the coffee shop,giving my linguistic genius out look on life.....i dare you to show up......hahahhahhahhahhahhahhahhah
asp
written by João da Silva, December 10, 2008
Thanks for your info on this Chompski. Probably our good friend Forrest was picking up a fight with him all the time while both were at MIT and questioning his "linguistic abilities". But....But...., I thought Chompski was full of hot air.

hey, joao , ill be at saraiva at shopping iguatemi tomorrow between 7 and 8 , at the coffee shop,giving my linguistic genius out look on life.....i dare you to show up......hahahhahhahhahhahhahhahhah


Saraiva is the only place you can buy good English books for a "Competitive Price". As you must have discovered by now after so many years in Brazil, the translated books cost a fortune and the original ones in Saraiva cost much less. That is one great advantage of being bilingual! My wife bought the hard cover copy of "World Without End" for around 18 Reais last year at Saraiva. To be honest, that store and the "Big" are the only things I like about that mall.

As for barging in tomorrow night to see ya, I must take a rain check as I have an X-Mas party during this hour. But let me assure you that soon we will meet. I hope you find some good books on "Promoção" tomorrow. Have a great time.
Ricardo Amaral
written by Andrade de Nascimento, December 10, 2008
1001 saudações,Seu Ricardo.Glad to here you.I not know Mr.Chomski. He from PR? No mind. But Brasil doing good. Your plan talking off. Chinamen give 10 Billion reais to Petrobras. CEF & BB give 3 more Billion to Petrobras.CVRD in truble.may be prisidente give more money. we get money from arbs also. our frends help us to renational everything. 2009 veri promising.

I not like American sistem also.they no have liberty as we Brasilians. Sorry to them.I not do anything to help.

Yoo have marry Cristmas.

What a Democracy! (originally written by Bobão)
written by ..., December 11, 2008
Funny think Americans criticizing Brasil’s democracy, ain’t it?

Just ask Governor Rod Blagojevich from the State of Illinois, he is selling a Federal Senatorial vacancy to the highest bidder. A combination of American fake democracy with their form of capitalism… Hehehe!

Good sense of humor though.

Costinha

PS: Augustus… Nice to hear from you as well. I’ve being work-traveling quite a bit lately, just ask Gringo, he knows!

From Jamaica to Hong-Kong, back to Amsterdam with stop in New York, right before heading to Bangkok with a lay-over Sidney, before heading back to Rio via Johannesburg.
Rickie Dickie
written by ..., December 11, 2008
I see you still behaving erratically… Remember, there is no vaccine against stupidity. Now, take your hat off so that I can point out a concrete example.

Yours truly,

Costinha
Costinha - your trip
written by Augustus, December 11, 2008
Costa
How did you like my adopte hometown? NYC
I trust you stayed in Manhattan - I hope you have a great time!

How did you like Sydney & Amsterdam???? I bet you had a "ball' smilies/wink.gif
I'm sure you have behaved...NOT!!! smilies/grin.gif
I wish we could exchange experiences about these 2 wonderful cities, PARTICULARLY AMSTERDAM!!!
Tell me all about your 'travessuras" smilies/cool.gif
Where do you live by the way??? If you do not mind my asking
Cheers
Noam Chomski
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, December 11, 2008
Today Noam Chomski is considered to be one of the leading intellectuals in the United States. He is like a living encyclopedia and I enjoy when I see him being interviewed on The Charlie Rose Show - I have a soft spot for Noam Chomski because besides being very knowledgeable about Brazil, he also speaks very highly of my country.

Regarding economics I don’t understand how his libertarian socialism world is supposed to work.


*********


Noam Chomsky (born December 7, 192smilies/cool.gif is an American linguist, philosopher, cognitive scientist, political activist, author, and lecturer. He is an Institute Professor emeritus and professor emeritus of linguistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Chomsky is well known in the academic and scientific community as the father of modern linguistics. Since the 1960s, he has become known more widely as a political dissident, an anarchist, and a libertarian socialist intellectual.

In the 1950s, Chomsky began developing his theory of generative grammar, which has undergone numerous revisions and has had a profound influence on linguistics. Within that field, he has been described as "a hero of Homeric proportions, belonging solidly in the pantheon of our country's finest minds, with all the powers and qualities thereof. First, foremost, and initially he is staggeringly smart. The speed, scope, and synthetic abilities of his intellect are legendary. He is, too, a born leader, able to marshal support, fierce and uncompromising support, for positions he develops or adopts. Often, it seems, he shapes linguistics by sheer force of will."He also established the Chomsky hierarchy, a classification of formal languages in terms of their generative power. His 1959 review of B. F. Skinner's Verbal Behavior challenged the behaviorist approaches to studies of behavior and language dominant at the time and contributed to the cognitive revolution in psychology. His naturalistic approach to the study of language has affected the philosophy of language and mind.

Beginning with his opposition to the Vietnam War Chomsky established himself as a prominent critic of US foreign and domestic policy. He is a self-declared adherent of libertarian socialism which he regards as "the proper and natural extension of classical liberalism into the era of advanced industrial society."

…Chomsky joined the staff of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1955 and in 1961 was appointed full professor in the Department of Modern Languages and Linguistics (now the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy). From 1966 to 1976 he held the Ferrari P. Ward Professorship of Modern Languages and Linguistics, and in 1976 he was appointed Institute Professor. As of 2008, Chomsky has taught at MIT continuously for 53 years.

In February 1967, Chomsky became one of the leading opponents of the Vietnam War with the publication of his essay, "The Responsibility of Intellectuals", in The New York Review of Books. This was followed by his 1969 book, American Power and the New Mandarins, a collection of essays which established him at the forefront of American dissent.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky

Since the 1960s, he has become known more widely as a political dissident, an anarchist, and a libertarian socialist intellectual.You can read about it at: Libertarian socialism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_socialism


*************


Prospect Magazine - November 2005

Is the world's top public intellectual a brilliant expositor of linguistics and the US's duplicitous foreign policy? Or a reflexive anti-American, cavalier with his sources?
By: Robin Blackburn

The huge vote for Noam Chomsky as the world's leading "public intellectual" should be no surprise at all. Who could match him for sheer intellectual achievement and political courage?

Very few transform an entire field of enquiry, as Chomsky has done in linguistics. Chomsky's scientific work is still controversial, but his immense achievement is not in question, as may be easily confirmed by consulting the recent Cambridge Companion to Chomsky. He didn't only transform linguistics in the 1950s and 1960s; he has remained in the forefront of controversy and research.

The huge admiration for Chomsky evident in Prospect's poll is obviously not only, or even mainly, a response to intellectual achievement. Rather it goes to a brilliant thinker who is willing to step outside his study and devote himself to exposing the high crimes and misdemeanours of the most powerful country in the world and its complicity with venal and brutal rulers across four continents over half a century or more…

Source: http://www.prospect-magazine.c...hp?id=7110

.
Brazil has a real Democratic system..
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, December 11, 2008
Reply to Bo – Brazil has about 15 major political parties – in such a system is much harder to manipulate the political system – and larger sects of the population has real representation to their views on the decisions of the government.

The Brazilian political system is far from being perfect, but it is light years ahead of the American political system.

At the end of the day, the American political system is a relic of the past, a good system for an age long gone.

I am not sure why Americans call its political system a democratic system. First the entire American political system is designed to make almost impossible for the creation of new nationally viable political parties.

In a new presidential cycle starts with a large field of contenders for one of the two major political parties – Democratic and Republican Parties.

Then these parties start their primaries. And after 2 or 3 primaries in states with a hand full of people (mostly white folks) and this small number of people eliminates most of the candidates of both parties. Basically, a hand full of people decides who is going to represent the 2 wings of the same bird in the presidential election.

This past presidential election I saw first hand how undemocratic the American political system is – about 10 days before the elections they had a small article on page 21 of The New York Times showing also a picture of Ralph Nader giving an speech to thousands of people. The article said that Ralph Nader had been visiting most of the states during his presidential campaign and that everywhere he went thousands of people were showing up to hear what Ralph Nader had to say.

The 2 major parties blocked Ralph Nader from participating in the final presidential debates and the American mainstream media boycotted almost 100 percent Ralph Nader’s presidential campaign and they did not mention or show on television any of Ralph Nader’s political events. Most Americans did not even know that Ralph Nader was a presidential candidate in 2008.

I see a lot of people saying that Brazil has to learn from the United States about equal opportunity regarding a chance to become president of the country.

In my opinion, Brazil has to learn nothing from the United States in that regard.

First, Barack Obama was not elected US president based on race – Americans voted him in based on their pocket books and as a result of the demise of the collapsing American economic system during the year 2008.

Second, Lula is the Brazilian version of Barack Obama.

Lula is a prime example of how the democratic system in Brazil works – in another age someone with Lula’s profile would never have a chance of becoming president of Brazil.

.
Reply to Andrade de Nascimento
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, December 11, 2008
I wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

I had not checked Brazzil magazine in the last 3 weeks.

Here in the US Barack Obama is picking his new cabinet – I would give a grade of A for his economic team. Paul Volcker is one of the best American economists and Larry Summers is also excellent.

A lot of people complain that I just write everything positive about Brazil, but yesterday in one of these rare moments I wrote a negative piece about Brazil and you can read it at:

Quoting from what I posted on the Elite Trader website:
By the way, my screen name on that site is: SouthAmerica.

December 9, 2008

SouthAmerica: According to this article published by Bloomberg News the Brazilian real declined by 36 percent against the US dollar in the last four-month period, and a Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. senior currency strategist estimates that the real may fall another 9 percent by year-end. That would be a decline of 45 percent for a five-month period ending December 31, 2008.

A 45 percent decline of Brazil’s currency in such a short period of time when Brazil it seems like the country’s economy had been well managed and the Brazilian economy was in terrific shape.

I am not surprised of such outcome and the only thing that I can do is shake my head in frustration since I have been writing on this subject for the last 10 years and my Brazilian compatriots can’t grasp that the international monetary game has changed in drastic ways after the birth of the euro in 1999.

It’s pathetic, but I don’t understand why Brazil, and China for that matter, they don’t understand that it is time to play grown up, and stop playing 3rd fiddler in the international monetary system.

You can read the entire piece at: Central Banks and the US Dollar.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...enumber=60



*******



On December 7, 2008 by chance I came across some information regarding some Brazilian author who quoted on his book some information that I had posted on Elite Trader.

He used my economic predictions on his book to discredit me. His book was published on December 1, 2007 – almost exactly one year ago.

You probably will enjoy reading about it. I am sure that in the future this guy is not going to try to discredit me again since he look so foolish today because all my predictions materialized.


December 7, 2008

SouthAmerica: This evening I Googled my name to find some information that I was looking for when I came across a posting that I had initiated on Elite Trader - “Economic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyond” – author Attila S. L. Andrade quoted on his book my postings on Elite Trader.

Quoting from Dr. Attila S. L. Andrade Jr’s book “USA 2030 Predictions” published in December 1, 2007…

You can read the entire piece at:
Economic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyond
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...genumber=8


.
I don't know why the plus sign disappeared when I posted here
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, December 11, 2008
Here in the US Barack Obama is picking his new cabinet – I would give a grade of A (plus)for his economic team. Paul Volcker is one of the best American economists and Larry Summers is also excellent.

.
At least...
written by bo, December 11, 2008
In the U.S. the people got sick and tired of GW and made a change. Here in Brazil these people are in love with the ranting, raging, foaming, LULA! And if he pulls a "Chavez" and becomes eligible for a 3rd term....they'll elect him again!

Lula quote from 3 months ago:

"Crisis? What Crisis? We don't have no stinking crisis!!"

Ricardo, you don't have to tell me a thing about Brazilian politics. I live amongst them here in my city. I watch them daily being picked up by their chauffeurs. And for someone to even bring up the situation with the governor of illinois, what a joke. Look what he's facing now! Is there any human that believes that the guy will not go to jail?

Here in Brazil he would get re-elected!! LMAO! Just ask Paulo Maluf! Or, we wouldn't even hear about it because the politician would either own all of the local media outlets or get a judicial order to prevent the press on reporting about it!

Yeah, I live in a city that is full of Brazilian oil, the politicians line their pockets, and we don't even hit 40% of city coverage in basic sanitation, the energy went out here this weekend.....FOUR TIMES.....AND WE WERE VOTED AS HAVING THE HIGHEST QUALITY OF LIFE IN BRAZIL!!smilies/cheesy.gif

And here we have the big December until after Carnaval break coming (2 months!). Ya know where a large percentage of them will take their families for vacation?????

Do I even have to say it?

Deus me livre! smilies/cheesy.gif
...
written by João da Silva, December 11, 2008
Second, Lula is the Brazilian version of Barack Obama.


Wholeheartedly agree with you for different reasons, though. I hope our fellow blogger Mr.DnBaiacu gets to read the comments and comes out with his views on this particular point.

And if he pulls a "Chavez" and becomes eligible for a 3rd term....they'll elect him again!


The probability right now is 81%.
Bobão – The bitter old fart
written by ..., December 11, 2008
You remind me of a watery bowel movement bubbling back up to the surface after a pregnant water buffalo farts in the river.

Bobão… Here is a useful tip: Eat 2lbs of spicy Indian curry and then fart your head back out of you’re a.s.s.

Good day,

Costinha
Augustus
written by ..., December 11, 2008
Me? Carioca da Gema, Vascaíno doente!

Home Sweet Home… RIO… Home Sweet Home

Costinha

PS: Shelly, where the hell are you? I miss your lack of logic combined with your horrible breath!
Dear Old Noam Chomsky
written by Ric, December 11, 2008
Key word is "old", he's about 80. No longer a factor, in IFR terms.

In his own words: "...personal visions are fairly traditional and anarchist ones..."

Likes gun control, population control, one-world government. A national treasure, in that he's a Yid who is anti-semetic, backs Hezbollah, Hamas, defended Kmer Rouge, and Slobodan Milosevec.

Like Judge Richard Posner is quoted as saying, " A successful academic may be able to use his success to reach the general public on matters about which he is an idiot."
Mr. Amaral - Godiva Dark Cholcolate not be compared with KIBON sold on Brazil's streets
written by Augustus, December 11, 2008
Mr. Amaral, I must unfortunately strongly object to the unfortunate analogy you have made between Obama & Lula, for there seems to be scarcely any legitimate basis:
Lula is the Brazilian version of Barack Obama.[/

With the exception of one important consideration which nevertheless constitutes =a mere “statistical footnote” (namely, the fact that Mr. Obama represents the very first African American citizen to be elected President of the United States; whereas Lula represents the first Working Class/Labor Party official to be elected President of Brazil); any further attempt to compare the two individuals is nearly offensive (for Obama)

How can one compare a highly educated, middle-class African-American from Chicago, with a Law degree with a prestigious University with...
A nearly illiterate, former factory worker migrant from Pernambuco bearing (at best) a working-class background, and lacks any hint of sophistication and/or refinement,

In addition, Obama is a highly eloquent intellectual, whereas that person (who bears the name of a house pet) can hardly speak his very native language.

I would suggest you consider “rank & file” whenever making analogies. In case of this “Lula” it might be advisable to associate and/or place his with “fitting company”: among the highly disagreeable creatures of questionable origin & education such as Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and Daniel Ortega...
Joao lol
written by dnbaiacu, December 11, 2008
I hope our fellow blogger Mr.DnBaiacu gets to read the comments and comes out with his views on this particular point


I am just reading the comments. Nothing much to say on this one. "This "political system over "that". They are all failures. We are just a little more fortunate to be living in the Western world the dominant side of the tryst.
If we consider ourselves "blessed".. Share with your neighbor. Be a good master in your "own kingdom".

I do agree though that Lula was baked from the same batch as Obama.
They are "sweet talkers". What the people will need to convince the nations to give up their sovereignty to the United Nations. How soon this will happen will depend on the extremity of the up and coming "Security" issues. The "economy" is already fragile so that part of the game is taken care of.
Get them "hungry",, then get the "scared".. Control

smilies/cry.gif smilies/cry.gif
dnbaiacu
written by João da Silva, December 11, 2008
Thank you so much for having taken the trouble to respond to my comment,lad! When commenting on Ricardo´s comment, I was referring to our favorite "Laranja" theory. smilies/cheesy.gif

Sorry Joãozão… but
written by ..., December 11, 2008
In my neighborhood people who uses the word “lad” is either a rotten-teeth Brit or kinda viadão!

Do you qualify?

Costinha
...
written by Augustus, December 11, 2008
Costa
That's what I used to be - LOL - (smilies/grin.gif) although perhaps never QUITE "da gema" as my sister still calls herself (although, unlike you, she is "flamengo doente" - LOL)
Vasco.... wow! It has been AGES since I heard that name. My father also favored that particular Soccer League (tchee-mee dhee foo-tchee-bohou - LOL) and I vaguely recall he was VERY enthusiastic about it and, if I recall correctly he may also have been a member (socio do clube). As for his allegiance to VASCO, in case of my father, I can understand his selection since, being son of Portuguese and first generation in Brazil, it never appeared surprising his selection of VASCO... (Most cariocas of MY time were either FLAMENGO, FLUMINENSE or BOTAFOGO)... What has lured you towards VASCO?
(em que bairro voce mora?)

Cheers
Costinha
written by João da Silva, December 11, 2008
Sorry Joãozão… but


You don't have to say sorry, my dear fellow. smilies/wink.gif

In my neighborhood people who uses the word “lad” is either a rotten-teeth Brit or kinda viadão!

Do you qualify?


No, I do not qualify on either counts. I got this bad habit of addressing youngsters as "lads" and "lasses" after associating with your fellow Carioca, Lord Augustus who writes in impeccable "Queens English". It is indeed a pain in the arse to try to imitate him. However, I must admit that he is not a bad bloke for a Carioca. smilies/cheesy.gif. Sometimes he rants and raves at our Junior blogger DnBaiacú and that doesn't mean there is bad blood between them.

Having said it, I now await Dnb expounding his "Theory of Laranjas". smilies/grin.gif

Cheers
Joãozão…
written by ..., December 12, 2008
You’re always politically correct but you are OK in my book!

Augustus:

Sou Carioca de Laranjeiras, dirijo um fusca, não sou Flamengo mas tenho uma nega chamada Tereza!

Costa
On Lula/Obama
written by Ric, December 12, 2008
Cut the race stuff, the education, and all of it. The fact is that Lula is a savvy survivor. My gut tells me that Obama will not be.
...
written by João da Silva, December 12, 2008
My gut tells me that Obama will not be.


All he has to do is to seek his ex-professor to learn to pronounce the phrase "Não fui eu". smilies/cheesy.gif
Parabens Brasilillillillillillillill.......!!!
written by ttmm7, September 14, 2009
I've lived in Brazil for about 20 years and it's clear to me the poster Ricardo Amaral does not have a good idea of what he's talking about.

Many people in Brazil don't even know who represents them in congress, and by voting for one candidate, they could bring in five or six others no one has ever heard of-- witness the phenomenon of Eneas and his fellow party members.

The U.S. system of public primaries that Senator Buarque is referring to is much more democratic than the system of "conclamação" that frequently chooses pre-candidates for election in Brazil. Conclamação--where a bunch of groupies stand up to applaud their favorite candidate, does not even involve a legitimate vote count and is very opaque to the public in general.

Noam Chomsky is a picareta loopy left wing academic who lives in the world of theory and is little qualified to comment on anything in American politics. Ever wonder why he has never developed a popular following from anyone in the U.S. aside from a far left academic fringe? Import him to Brazil and see what kind of bad rep**ation he will quickly develop here.


Regarding whether Lula is Brazil's Obama, I would say the two individuals are right about on par in regard to their complete lack of experience, lack of humility, and general acceptance of corruption as a means to obtaining power. Beyond that, they both have their cus virado para a lua, but unfortunately it will take much more than that for Obama to be successful in U.S. government. In Brazil, however, Lula has been able to apply the Rubens Ricupero model for government quite swimmingly, for which he deserves a tip of the hat...Parabens Brasiillillillillill....!!!

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