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 Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is set to win next month's presidential election, according to opinion polls published yesterday, September 21, despite allegations of corruption shaking his government.
Latest figures published by the IBOPE group show the incumbent picking up 49% in the first round of elections on October 1st, enjoying a 19 point lead above Geraldo Alckmin of the centrist Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). Trailing behind both of them is socialist Heloísa Helena, at 9% of the vote. This level of support for Lula may come as a surprise, given the explosion this week of a scandal in which Workers' Party (PT) members were alleged to have been involved in dirty tricks to damage the opposition. The federal police arrested a PT member last Friday, September 15, who was thought to be involved in the payment of 1.7 million reais (US$ 770,000) in cash to buy information that would supposedly incriminate the PSDB in an ambulance kickback scandal. Some US$ 139,000 of the funds were in US dollars from unknown bank accounts. The issue has been given ample coverage in the Brazilian media during the course of the week. Wednesday's edition of the daily O Globo newspaper carried stories on all 17 sides of its electoral pages about the scandal it has called "dossiergate': "The comparison between the supposed purchase of a dossier against toucan (PSDB) candidates and the Watergate scandal is inevitable," the newspaper said. "Both episodes involved elections, espionage and two presidents that kept ignoring the facts from the beginning. One of them ended up being deposed." The fact that the PT came to power four years ago promising transparency in its undertakings has clearly sharpened criticism among the electorate. MV-Brasil (Movement for the Valorization of Brazil's Culture, Idiom and Riches) - a campaign group which is known for its provocative stance in defense of national culture and business - set up a stall in the center of Rio with the sign "Death penalty to corrupt politicians". Wagner Vasconcelos, an executive member of the movement who is standing for election to the federal congress, was keen to point out the sign was more than pure provocation: "We have proposed an amendment to the constitution so that corrupt politicians face independent people's tribunals that have the power to impose the death penalty - for large scale fraud of public money and betrayal of the fatherland's military and business secrets," he said. Popular feeling towards self-serving politicians certainly has the potential to bring about some radical changes in Brazil. Street protests and media campaigns together led to the resignation of one president back in 1993 - Fernando Collor de Mello - when it emerged he was at the center of a massive fraudulent network. Given this level of mobilization in response to government malpractice, observers may question why is it that Lula still looks set to win the election. It may be explained in part by questions of personality and background. "Here the characteristics of the candidates count for a lot," said Jairo Nicolau, political scientist at Rio's prestigious IUPERJ institute. "The parties are fragile and no-one reads the manifestos - the candidates aren't differentiated by the manifestos." Born to a family in the underdeveloped northeast of the country, the young Lula moved to richer São Paulo in search of work and a better life. This is a journey which millions of Brazilians have made and can identify with, just as they can identify with his down-to-earth speech, full of analogies to the national pastime - football. In contrast, challenger Alckmin is criticized for being too "serious" and "rational." Some believe his biggest campaign downfall is his inability to reach outside of the São Paulo elite he represents to the majority of the population. Added to this, in terms of policy, the current administration has managed to keep significant chunks of both, São Paulo elite and the nordestinos (northeasterners) happy. Far from fulfilling financial market expectations of being fiscally irresponsible, since its 2002 election Lula's government has outdone IMF targets on its GDP surplus, while maintaining some of the highest interest rates in the world. As a result it is endorsed by elements of the banking and business communities. And this approach has been skillfully combined with targeted social spending to raise the incomes of the poorest households, thus bagging the votes of this group as well. In this context the anger many voters feel towards the PT over corruption is somewhat mitigated, even tolerated: "Lula is corrupt, but he is the least bad option," said Cornelius Rohr, a 50-year old hotel owner from Rio who supported the president in 2002, will do so again this year and "always will." The PT has long presented itself as a different kind of party and in one way this is certainly true. While its record on corruption may have shown fewer novelties than voters might have hoped for, it is one of the most institutionalised parties in Brazil . Those strong grassroots links to a core of the electorate who cannot imagine switching allegiances has been quite a novel element in Brazilian politics of the last two decades, where loyalties of both politicians and voters tend to be quite inchoate. And this factor could be as key to Lula's likely victory next month as are personal charm and policy. Luke McLeod-Roberts is a freelance journalist based in Rio de Janeiro. He can be reached at
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This is just incredible and a condemnation of the mandatory vote in Brazil.