Dollar Flow Deep in Red in Brazil This Month

    US dollar

    US dollarBrazil’s Central Bank registered a negative dollar flow of over US$ 1.5 billion during the first 12 days of March. The so-called financial flow (remittances and foreign investments mainly) was negative US$ 1,242 billion. The commercial flow (trade) was negative US$ 300 million. 

    So far this year the negative dollar flow totals US$ 867 million, compared to a huge US$ 4.362 billion negative flow during the same period in 2009, right after the financial crisis hit and all the multinationals were sending dollars back to headquarters.

    Meanwhile, armed with a strong currency, Brazilian tourists spent $1.2 billion abroad in January, the highest amount for the month since 1969.

    As for the job market, 209,425 new jobs were created in Brazil in February all of them with new employees registered, on-the-books, paying taxes and getting benefits.

    The number of jobs created in February was the best since records began in 1992 (the numbers were made public by the General Register of Employed and Unemployed – Caged – which is maintained by the Ministry of Labor). The number of people with jobs rose 0.63% in February, compared to January.

    Trade Deficit

    The Brazilian trade balance result turned out a US$ 48 million deficit in the third week of March, from the 15th to the 21st.

    With this result, the accumulated surplus in the month dropped from US$ 582 million to US$ 534 million. In the year, the trade surplus dropped to US$ 761 million.

    In the third week of the month, foreign sales reached US$ 3.416 billion and imports, US$ 3.464 billion.

    Brazilian financial market analysts consulted this past week by the Central Bank of Brazil have slightly raised their projection of economic growth for this year.

    According to the Focus bulletin, published on a weekly basis by the Central Bank, the estimated growth of the gross domestic product, which is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, has been revised up from 5.45% to 5.50%. For 2011, the growth expectation of 4.5% has been maintained.

    As for the growth of industrial production this year, the estimate has gone from 8.74% to 8.79%. Next year, the analysts are expecting growth of 5%, same as in the previous forecast.

    The projection of net public debt-to-GDP ratio has been maintained at 41.50%, this year, and revised down from 39.80% to 39.60%, in 2011.

    The trade surplus forecast (positive result for exports minus imports) has remained at US$ 10 billion for this year, and US$ 2.5 billion for 2011.

    Regarding the deficit in current transactions (the sum of purchase and sale transactions of goods and services with foreign countries), the estimate for this year has been revised from US$ 51 billion to US$ 50 billion. For 2011, analysts have maintained their projection of US$ 60 billion.

    The expected foreign direct investment (funds allocated to the country’s industry) has been maintained at US$ 38 billion in 2010, and US$ 40 billion in 2011.



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