2010: Brazil’s Exports to Grow 12% and Imports 24%

    Truck in Brazil

    Truck in Brazil Exports from Brazil should reach around US$ 170.7 billion in 2010, with growth of 12% over the US$ 152.4 billion forecasted for 2009, according to estimates disclosed by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).

    On the other hand, imports should rise by around 24% due to exchange rates and to domestic growth, considering 5% expansion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the sum of goods and services produced in the country.

    This should result in a surplus of US$ 12.2 billion in the trade balance. The result should, however, represent a reduction of 48.9% over the US$ 23.9 billion trade balance result estimated for 2009.

    The vice president at the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, said that, with the growth of 12% in exports and 24% in imports, “foreign trade in 2010 should offer a negative contribution for the growth of the GDP. That is, if it were not for foreign trade, the GDP could grow further.” The impact of the trade balance should be of minus 1.5 percentage point in GDP growth, he estimated.

    Castro evaluated that, once again, Brazil should continue depending on commodities (agricultural and mineral products traded abroad), “because, with the current exchange rates, manufactured products are no longer competitive on the foreign market. They should struggle to remain at the same levels as those of 2009.”

    According to the vice president at the AEB, Brazilian dependence on commodity prices is 70%. If they behave as is taking place now, the scenery will be one for a foreign trade surplus. If, on the other hand, prices drop, especially in the case of the soy and ore complexes, “we may have a surprise and a trade deficit. We depend greatly on commodity prices.”

    According to him, there are doubts with regard to Brazilian foreign trade in 2010. One of them refers to soy, as in 2010 there should be three great crops, in Brazil, Argentina and the United States. “Up to now, prices are remaining at a similar average to that of 2009, which is good for Brazil.” Confirmation of the three super crops, however, may generate a negative result for the country.

    The second doubt is with regard to steel. Castro pointed out that surplus production worldwide totals 500 million tons. “Up to now, there has been no impact on prices. But, in case that takes place, it should affect iron ore, pig iron, steel itself and semi-manufactured steel products, which play a significant part in the Brazilian trade balance.”

    ABr

    Tags:

    • Show Comments (0)

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

    comment *

    • name *

    • email *

    • website *

    Ads

    You May Also Like

    Japan’s Minister Visits Brazilian Ethanol Plant

    Brazilian Minister of Agriculture, Roberto Rodrigues, was in the city of Pradópolis, in the ...

    Brazilians Believe They Have Asian Tiger Blood

    In a recent trip to  New York, to participate at the “Brazil & Partners: Investment Opportunities” ...

    Governor Serra and Lybia's deputy prime minister

    Libya Wants to Invest Half a Billion Dollars in Brazil and South America

    Libya has separated US$ 500 million for investment in business in South America and ...

    For Making Brazil’s Wasteland into Farmland Three Men Win World Food Prize

    Three men who worked to make the Cerrado area of central Brazil fertile and ...

    Brazil's Zero Hunger program

    Brazil Tells the World in Paris How Its Zero Hunger Program is Working

    The Brazilian minister of Social Development and Hunger Alleviation, Patrus Ananias, will give a ...

    Slave Labor Common Where US Nun Was Murdered in Brazil

    Sister Dorothy Stang, a Sister of Notre Dame de Namur from Cincinnati, was assassinated ...

    Brazil's nuclear plant Angra 2 pressurizer

    Brazil Starts Enriching Uranium for Its Nuclear Power Plants

    The INB, state-owned Brazilian Nuclear Industries, is going to enrich uranium in Resende, in ...

    Brazil Papaya on Its Way to the U.S.

    The producers from the northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia will start exporting, between September ...

    Brazilian Trailer Maker Wants to Export US$ 170 Million in 2006

    Randon, the Brazilian maker of highway implements, should end the year with growth of ...

    Trucks in Brazilian road

    Brazilian Imports Keep Growing at 51% Rate

    Brazil's balance of trade recorded a surplus (exports minus imports) of US$ 305 million ...